Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Evan Kidera, Armand Gilinsky Jr., Jeffrey P. Shay, Sally Baack. The Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry (referred as “Sea Sisig” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurial finance.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry Case Study

This case takes place as SeA?or Sisig has had three years of increasing success. The case highlights founder Evan Kidera, and the business as a whole, in SeA?or Sisig's efforts to continue the company's success and in pursuing the best growth options. SeA?or Sisig has received great acclaim in its early years. Founder Evan Kidera feels great pressure to capitalize on the opportunities presented to SeA?or Sisig as a result of the hard work in those early years, and at the same time does not want to over-stretch SeA?or Sisig's reach. Beyond maintaining business as usual, Kidera was considering three growth opportunities for SeA?or Sisig: (1) Add more food trucks, (2) expand operations to package products for sales to food retailers, and (3) open a bricks-and-mortar restaurant.

Case Authors : Evan Kidera, Armand Gilinsky Jr., Jeffrey P. Shay, Sally Baack

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Entrepreneurial finance

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016784)	-10016784	-	-
Year 1	3468338	-6548446	3468338	0.9434	3272017
Year 2	3955263	-2593183	7423601	0.89	3520170
Year 3	3941409	1348226	11365010	0.8396	3309283
Year 4	3224228	4572454	14589238	0.7921	2553891
TOTAL			14589238		12655361

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2638577

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sea Sisig shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sea Sisig have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sea Sisig often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sea Sisig needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016784)	-10016784	-	-
Year 1	3468338	-6548446	3468338	0.8696	3015946
Year 2	3955263	-2593183	7423601	0.7561	2990747
Year 3	3941409	1348226	11365010	0.6575	2591540
Year 4	3224228	4572454	14589238	0.5718	1843463
TOTAL					10441696

The Net NPV after 4 years is 424912

(10441696 - 10016784 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016784)	-10016784	-	-
Year 1	3468338	-6548446	3468338	0.8333	2890282
Year 2	3955263	-2593183	7423601	0.6944	2746710
Year 3	3941409	1348226	11365010	0.5787	2280908
Year 4	3224228	4572454	14589238	0.4823	1554894
TOTAL					9472794

The Net NPV after 4 years is -543990

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472794 - 10016784 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sea Sisig to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sea Sisig has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sea Sisig can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sea Sisig, then the stock price of the Sea Sisig should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sea Sisig should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry

References & Further Readings

Evan Kidera, Armand Gilinsky Jr., Jeffrey P. Shay, Sally Baack (2018), "Senor Sisig: Hungry for Growth in the Food Truck Industry Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.