Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mitsuru Misawa. The Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business (referred as “Ina Agar” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Labor, Leadership, Managing people, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business Case Study

Ina Food Industry Co. Ltd was situated in Ina, Nagano Prefecture, and surrounded by the soaring mountains of Japan's Alps. Amidst this idyllic setting, Mr. Hiroshi Tsukakoshi, Ina Food's 68-year-old chairman, had led the company through an incredible 48 years of continuous revenue and profit growth. The company was a leading manufacturer of powdered agar, a traditional gelatin product derived from seaweed. In 2005, news about the medicinal benefits of agar led to a boom in demand, but Tsukakoshi felt that this was an unfortunate event and believed that if management was not preoccupied purely with revenue, and instead focused on establishing steady growth, the company would continue to exist for a long time. This in turn would please everybody who was directly or indirectly associated with the company. He was confident that Ina Foods was a new model for Japanese small- and medium-sized businesses under a new management philosophy that brought happiness to employees and community. He felt he had done a good job so far. The business had prospered and did not pose any urgent problems. But he also felt that he should not simply sit back and savor his success. There were tremendous growth opportunities and he knew operations should be improved before those opportunities could be targeted.

Case Authors : Mitsuru Misawa

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Labor, Leadership, Managing people, Marketing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009955)	-10009955	-	-
Year 1	3448663	-6561292	3448663	0.9434	3253456
Year 2	3968666	-2592626	7417329	0.89	3532099
Year 3	3955867	1363241	11373196	0.8396	3321422
Year 4	3243482	4606723	14616678	0.7921	2569142
TOTAL			14616678		12676118

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2666163

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ina Agar shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ina Agar have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ina Agar often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ina Agar needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009955)	-10009955	-	-
Year 1	3448663	-6561292	3448663	0.8696	2998837
Year 2	3968666	-2592626	7417329	0.7561	3000882
Year 3	3955867	1363241	11373196	0.6575	2601047
Year 4	3243482	4606723	14616678	0.5718	1854471
TOTAL					10455237

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445282

(10455237 - 10009955 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009955)	-10009955	-	-
Year 1	3448663	-6561292	3448663	0.8333	2873886
Year 2	3968666	-2592626	7417329	0.6944	2756018
Year 3	3955867	1363241	11373196	0.5787	2289275
Year 4	3243482	4606723	14616678	0.4823	1564179
TOTAL					9483358

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526597

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483358 - 10009955 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ina Agar to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ina Agar has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ina Agar can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ina Agar, then the stock price of the Ina Agar should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ina Agar should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business

References & Further Readings

Mitsuru Misawa (2018), "Ina Food Industry: A New Management Philosophy for Japanese Business Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.