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SM Entertainment Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for SM Entertainment case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. SM Entertainment case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mooweon Rhee, Sang-Hoon Kim, William Barnett. The SM Entertainment (referred as “Sm Entertainment” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, International business, Strategy, Talent management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of SM Entertainment Case Study


On the evening of June 10, 2011, the first European tour of Korean idol groups was held in Paris. With European fans demanding tickets and organizing a flashmob rally in front of the Louvre Museum, SM Entertainment, the producers, immediately set up an additional European concert. The success of the Paris concert elevated the status of K-pop and showed that it held potential in the global market. Behind the development of K-pop was the unique production system created by Soo-man Lee of SM Entertainment. When he established SM Entertainment in 1995, Lee introduced a systematic production system that integrated the functions of record distribution, agency, and management and enabled the company to make long-term investments in talented artists. The adoption of a sustainable growth model led SM to emerge as the leader in the Korean entertainment industry. This case explores in depth SM Entertainment's talent development process. It also traces the successes and failures that SM experienced, primarily in China, Japan, and Korea and discusses Lee's vision of building a "virtual nation." Lee believed that "the world's biggest star would come from the largest market," thus explaining his focus on succeeding in the Chinese market and grooming Chinese talent. The case concludes by examining a number of strategies that SM Entertainment used to develop a presence in the global music market.


Case Authors : Mooweon Rhee, Sang-Hoon Kim, William Barnett

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : International business, Strategy, Talent management




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for SM Entertainment Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011268) -10011268 - -
Year 1 3461499 -6549769 3461499 0.9434 3265565
Year 2 3978468 -2571301 7439967 0.89 3540822
Year 3 3970654 1399353 11410621 0.8396 3333838
Year 4 3245107 4644460 14655728 0.7921 2570429
TOTAL 14655728 12710654




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2699386

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Sm Entertainment have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Sm Entertainment shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of SM Entertainment

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Sm Entertainment often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Sm Entertainment needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011268) -10011268 - -
Year 1 3461499 -6549769 3461499 0.8696 3009999
Year 2 3978468 -2571301 7439967 0.7561 3008293
Year 3 3970654 1399353 11410621 0.6575 2610769
Year 4 3245107 4644460 14655728 0.5718 1855400
TOTAL 10484462


The Net NPV after 4 years is 473194

(10484462 - 10011268 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10011268) -10011268 - -
Year 1 3461499 -6549769 3461499 0.8333 2884583
Year 2 3978468 -2571301 7439967 0.6944 2762825
Year 3 3970654 1399353 11410621 0.5787 2297832
Year 4 3245107 4644460 14655728 0.4823 1564963
TOTAL 9510203


The Net NPV after 4 years is -501065

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9510203 - 10011268 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Sm Entertainment to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Sm Entertainment has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Sm Entertainment can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Sm Entertainment, then the stock price of the Sm Entertainment should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Sm Entertainment should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of SM Entertainment

References & Further Readings

Mooweon Rhee, Sang-Hoon Kim, William Barnett (2018), "SM Entertainment Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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