Privatisation of the MTR Corp. Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Privatisation of the MTR Corp. case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Privatisation of the MTR Corp. case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Su Han Chan, Ko Wang, Mary Ho. The Privatisation of the MTR Corp. (referred as “Mtr Listing” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Privatisation of the MTR Corp. Case Study

On March 3, 1999, the financial secretary of Hong Kong announced in his budget speech that the government planned to partially privatize the MTR Corp. through the sale and listing of a minority interest in the corporation's shares. The listing of this integrated rail operator on October 5, 2000, created an important precedent for future privatization of government assets. However, a host of uncertainties remained about how value enhancements are achieved in this privatization.

Case Authors : Su Han Chan, Ko Wang, Mary Ho

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Privatisation of the MTR Corp. Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013641)	-10013641	-	-
Year 1	3472393	-6541248	3472393	0.9434	3275842
Year 2	3973357	-2567891	7445750	0.89	3536274
Year 3	3941016	1373125	11386766	0.8396	3308953
Year 4	3248295	4621420	14635061	0.7921	2572954
TOTAL			14635061		12694023

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2680382

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Mtr Listing have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Mtr Listing shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Privatisation of the MTR Corp.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Mtr Listing often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Mtr Listing needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013641)	-10013641	-	-
Year 1	3472393	-6541248	3472393	0.8696	3019472
Year 2	3973357	-2567891	7445750	0.7561	3004429
Year 3	3941016	1373125	11386766	0.6575	2591282
Year 4	3248295	4621420	14635061	0.5718	1857223
TOTAL					10472406

The Net NPV after 4 years is 458765

(10472406 - 10013641 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013641)	-10013641	-	-
Year 1	3472393	-6541248	3472393	0.8333	2893661
Year 2	3973357	-2567891	7445750	0.6944	2759276
Year 3	3941016	1373125	11386766	0.5787	2280681
Year 4	3248295	4621420	14635061	0.4823	1566500
TOTAL					9500117

The Net NPV after 4 years is -513524

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500117 - 10013641 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Mtr Listing to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Mtr Listing has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Mtr Listing can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Mtr Listing, then the stock price of the Mtr Listing should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Mtr Listing should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Privatisation of the MTR Corp.

References & Further Readings

Su Han Chan, Ko Wang, Mary Ho (2018), "Privatisation of the MTR Corp. Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.