Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mario Roitter, Gabriel Berger, Cecilia Rena. The Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation (referred as “Ausol Csg” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Social enterprise, Social responsibility.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation Case Study

Autopistas del Sol (AUSOL) was a company that had originated in a partnership constituted in 1994, when it was selected, through a public bidding process, to build and manage two of the main highways in the city of Buenos Aires. The SES Foundation was a nonprofit organization informally founded in 1998 and created by a group of professionals focused on developing informal educational programs for the social integration of poor youngsters. One of its outstanding programs was Community Study Groups (CSG), an initiative it carried out with AUSOL to boost schooling in two of the neighborhoods surrounding one AUSOL-managed highway. The case takes place in late 2001, a few months before the onset of the crisis that impacted Argentina. Focuses on the potential changes and risks entailed for the CSG program by AUSOL's decision to try to look for other sponsoring companies for the program. Although this strategy aimed to ensure program continuity, it also brought about a series of dilemmas for both organizations.

Case Authors : Mario Roitter, Gabriel Berger, Cecilia Rena

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Social enterprise, Social responsibility

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016908)	-10016908	-	-
Year 1	3460133	-6556775	3460133	0.9434	3264276
Year 2	3970606	-2586169	7430739	0.89	3533825
Year 3	3961519	1375350	11392258	0.8396	3326168
Year 4	3236730	4612080	14628988	0.7921	2563793
TOTAL			14628988		12688063

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2671155

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ausol Csg have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ausol Csg shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ausol Csg often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ausol Csg needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016908)	-10016908	-	-
Year 1	3460133	-6556775	3460133	0.8696	3008811
Year 2	3970606	-2586169	7430739	0.7561	3002349
Year 3	3961519	1375350	11392258	0.6575	2604763
Year 4	3236730	4612080	14628988	0.5718	1850611
TOTAL					10466534

The Net NPV after 4 years is 449626

(10466534 - 10016908 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016908)	-10016908	-	-
Year 1	3460133	-6556775	3460133	0.8333	2883444
Year 2	3970606	-2586169	7430739	0.6944	2757365
Year 3	3961519	1375350	11392258	0.5787	2292546
Year 4	3236730	4612080	14628988	0.4823	1560923
TOTAL					9494278

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522630

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494278 - 10016908 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ausol Csg to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ausol Csg has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ausol Csg can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ausol Csg, then the stock price of the Ausol Csg should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ausol Csg should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation

References & Further Readings

Mario Roitter, Gabriel Berger, Cecilia Rena (2018), "Developing Allies and Alliances: Autopistas del Sol and SES Foundation Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.