Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Janat Shah, Rahul Patil, Trilochan Sastry. The Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations (referred as “Subhiksha Retail” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations Case Study

Founded in 1997, Subhiksha had grown from one store in 1997 to more than 1000 retail outlets in 2008. It sold FMCG, grocery, pharmacy, mobile products, and fruits and vegetables (F & V). It was the largest supermarket and mobile retail chain in India with presence in 90 cities. In 2008, organized retail accounted for about 4% industry share. Although organized retail was identified as high-growth area by the middle of 2008, players who had entered the Indian retail had realized that organized retail in India was going to be tough business. Various players (Reliance, Bharti, Birla, and the Future Group) were experimenting with different formats and models. Subhiksha decided to come up with its own model which in its view was suitable to the Indian context. Subhiksha targeted the middle and lower classes and not the high-end customers. To do so, it operated with an everyday low pricing model and located several smaller stores to move closer to the customer. At the operational level, it constantly planned to increase the supply chain process efficiency to deliver goods at low prices. The Subhiksha business model is explained through a detailed description of operations of a store (Indiranagar) located in Bangalore. It also describes operations of the distribution center which served the Indiranagar store apart from serving 58 other stores. The case discusses the challenges of organized retail in general and specific challenges of inventory and cost management for a discount retailer. It also provides detailed data which can be used for the diagnosis of the supply chain system at Subhiksha.

Case Authors : Janat Shah, Rahul Patil, Trilochan Sastry

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013011)	-10013011	-	-
Year 1	3447675	-6565336	3447675	0.9434	3252524
Year 2	3977142	-2588194	7424817	0.89	3539642
Year 3	3939255	1351061	11364072	0.8396	3307474
Year 4	3243420	4594481	14607492	0.7921	2569092
TOTAL			14607492		12668733

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2655722

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Subhiksha Retail shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Subhiksha Retail have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Subhiksha Retail often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Subhiksha Retail needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013011)	-10013011	-	-
Year 1	3447675	-6565336	3447675	0.8696	2997978
Year 2	3977142	-2588194	7424817	0.7561	3007291
Year 3	3939255	1351061	11364072	0.6575	2590124
Year 4	3243420	4594481	14607492	0.5718	1854436
TOTAL					10449829

The Net NPV after 4 years is 436818

(10449829 - 10013011 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013011)	-10013011	-	-
Year 1	3447675	-6565336	3447675	0.8333	2873063
Year 2	3977142	-2588194	7424817	0.6944	2761904
Year 3	3939255	1351061	11364072	0.5787	2279661
Year 4	3243420	4594481	14607492	0.4823	1564149
TOTAL					9478777

The Net NPV after 4 years is -534234

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9478777 - 10013011 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Subhiksha Retail to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Subhiksha Retail has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Subhiksha Retail can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Subhiksha Retail, then the stock price of the Subhiksha Retail should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Subhiksha Retail should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations

References & Further Readings

Janat Shah, Rahul Patil, Trilochan Sastry (2018), "Subhiksha: Managing Store Operations Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.