Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield. The Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) (referred as “Minerals Rare” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Budgeting, Competition, Financial analysis, Financial markets, Managing uncertainty, Manufacturing, Marketing, Mergers & acquisitions.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) Case Study

Molycorp, the western hemisphere's only producer of rare earth minerals, was in the middle of a $1 billion capital expenditure project in its effort to become a vertically integrated supplier of rare earth minerals, oxides, and metals. Yet it had just reported lower than expected revenues and earnings for the second quarter of 2012. In response to the announcement, its stock price fell 29% (its stock price had fallen from $77 to $11 in the past 18 months). The weakening financial performance was due in large part to falling prices for rare earth minerals. With less internally-generated cash flow available to fund the project, management had to decide: how much capital to raise, what kind to raise, and when to raise it. These decisions would determine its capital structure, at least in the short term, as well as its ability to implement its business strategy.

Case Authors : Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Budgeting, Competition, Financial analysis, Financial markets, Managing uncertainty, Manufacturing, Marketing, Mergers & acquisitions

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014923)	-10014923	-	-
Year 1	3443808	-6571115	3443808	0.9434	3248875
Year 2	3971855	-2599260	7415663	0.89	3534937
Year 3	3958423	1359163	11374086	0.8396	3323568
Year 4	3243674	4602837	14617760	0.7921	2569294
TOTAL			14617760		12676674

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2661751

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Minerals Rare shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Minerals Rare have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Minerals Rare often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Minerals Rare needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014923)	-10014923	-	-
Year 1	3443808	-6571115	3443808	0.8696	2994616
Year 2	3971855	-2599260	7415663	0.7561	3003293
Year 3	3958423	1359163	11374086	0.6575	2602727
Year 4	3243674	4602837	14617760	0.5718	1854581
TOTAL					10455217

The Net NPV after 4 years is 440294

(10455217 - 10014923 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014923)	-10014923	-	-
Year 1	3443808	-6571115	3443808	0.8333	2869840
Year 2	3971855	-2599260	7415663	0.6944	2758233
Year 3	3958423	1359163	11374086	0.5787	2290754
Year 4	3243674	4602837	14617760	0.4823	1564272
TOTAL					9483098

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531825

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483098 - 10014923 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Minerals Rare to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Minerals Rare has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Minerals Rare can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Minerals Rare, then the stock price of the Minerals Rare should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Minerals Rare should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A)

References & Further Readings

Benjamin C. Esty, E. Scott Mayfield (2018), "Molycorp: Financing the Production of Rare Earth Minerals (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.