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A Brief Introduction to Museums Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for A Brief Introduction to Museums case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. A Brief Introduction to Museums case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Elvira Marco, Quionia Herrero, Beatriz Munoz-Seca Fernandez-Cuesta, Josep Riverola Garcia. The A Brief Introduction to Museums (referred as “Museums Masses.during” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Corporate governance, International business.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of A Brief Introduction to Museums Case Study


Historically, museums in Europe were developed by the social elite, and many have their origins in royal collections which were not open to the public. However, during the nineteenth century, they began to open their doors to visitors, a move conceived as a means of helping to educate the masses.During the last third of the twentieth century, the role that museums played in society evolved: they went from being places for the display, preservation and storage of artworks, virtually their only function for the greater part of their existence, to focusing on public information and education. Over recent years, there have been significant changes in terms of the design and development of museums, some of which are listed below.


Case Authors : Elvira Marco, Quionia Herrero, Beatriz Munoz-Seca Fernandez-Cuesta, Josep Riverola Garcia

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Corporate governance, International business




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for A Brief Introduction to Museums Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10006582) -10006582 - -
Year 1 3443689 -6562893 3443689 0.9434 3248763
Year 2 3980844 -2582049 7424533 0.89 3542937
Year 3 3955359 1373310 11379892 0.8396 3320996
Year 4 3234918 4608228 14614810 0.7921 2562358
TOTAL 14614810 12675054


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2668472

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Museums Masses.during shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Museums Masses.during have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of A Brief Introduction to Museums

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Museums Masses.during often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Museums Masses.during needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10006582) -10006582 - -
Year 1 3443689 -6562893 3443689 0.8696 2994512
Year 2 3980844 -2582049 7424533 0.7561 3010090
Year 3 3955359 1373310 11379892 0.6575 2600713
Year 4 3234918 4608228 14614810 0.5718 1849575
TOTAL 10454890


The Net NPV after 4 years is 448308

(10454890 - 10006582 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10006582) -10006582 - -
Year 1 3443689 -6562893 3443689 0.8333 2869741
Year 2 3980844 -2582049 7424533 0.6944 2764475
Year 3 3955359 1373310 11379892 0.5787 2288981
Year 4 3234918 4608228 14614810 0.4823 1560049
TOTAL 9483246


The Net NPV after 4 years is -523336

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9483246 - 10006582 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Museums Masses.during to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Museums Masses.during has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Museums Masses.during can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Museums Masses.during, then the stock price of the Museums Masses.during should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Museums Masses.during should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Elvira Marco, Quionia Herrero, Beatriz Munoz-Seca Fernandez-Cuesta, Josep Riverola Garcia (2018), "A Brief Introduction to Museums Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.