Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by C.K. Prahalad, M.S. Krishnan. The Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology (referred as “Managers Disconnection” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IT, Strategy execution.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology Case Study

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. In an often overemphasized focus on efficiency, many companies turn to packaged information technology systems to manage business processes. University of Michigan Business School professors C.K. Prahalad and M.S. Krisnhan suggest they should be more concerned with strategy--and getting line managers and IT managers to use information systems in ways that facilitate strategic change. A new applications-portfolio scorecard helps managers assess information infrastructure before making investments. Six key considerations are: each IT application's role in strategy, whether the knowledge embodied in the application (say, salaries in a payroll application) is stable or evolving, how much change will be needed, where the application will be sourced, whether the data are proprietary or public, and the application's freedom from conformance defects. Those parameters differ for different functions. Only those companies that deeply analyze what they need from each IT application will acquire the right portfolio. The authors' work with 500 executives reveals that few managers believe their information infrastructure can handle the pressures from deregulation, globalization, ubiquitous connectivity, and the convergence of industries and technologies. Though fully aware their organizations lack rapid-response capability or flexibility, the managers rarely knew how to fix the disconnection between the quality of IT infrastructures and the need for strategic change. Considering that information-infrastructure expenditures are generally 2% to 8% of companies' revenues, new measures to address the disconnection are essential. A corresponding change in the mind-sets and skill sets of smart line managers and IT managers also helps improve overall competitiveness.

Case Authors : C.K. Prahalad, M.S. Krishnan

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : IT, Strategy execution

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026748)	-10026748	-	-
Year 1	3449513	-6577235	3449513	0.9434	3254258
Year 2	3957554	-2619681	7407067	0.89	3522209
Year 3	3957314	1337633	11364381	0.8396	3322637
Year 4	3247377	4585010	14611758	0.7921	2572227
TOTAL			14611758		12671330

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2644582

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Managers Disconnection have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Managers Disconnection shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Managers Disconnection often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Managers Disconnection needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026748)	-10026748	-	-
Year 1	3449513	-6577235	3449513	0.8696	2999577
Year 2	3957554	-2619681	7407067	0.7561	2992479
Year 3	3957314	1337633	11364381	0.6575	2601998
Year 4	3247377	4585010	14611758	0.5718	1856698
TOTAL					10450752

The Net NPV after 4 years is 424004

(10450752 - 10026748 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026748)	-10026748	-	-
Year 1	3449513	-6577235	3449513	0.8333	2874594
Year 2	3957554	-2619681	7407067	0.6944	2748301
Year 3	3957314	1337633	11364381	0.5787	2290112
Year 4	3247377	4585010	14611758	0.4823	1566058
TOTAL					9479065

The Net NPV after 4 years is -547683

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479065 - 10026748 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Managers Disconnection to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Managers Disconnection has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Managers Disconnection can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Managers Disconnection, then the stock price of the Managers Disconnection should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Managers Disconnection should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology

References & Further Readings

C.K. Prahalad, M.S. Krishnan (2018), "Dynamic Synchronization of Strategy and Information Technology Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.