Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sirkka Jarvenpaa, Jane Linder, Thomas H. Davenport, Juyne Linger. The Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy (referred as “External Innovation” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Innovation, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy Case Study

This is an MIT Sloan Management Review article. Companies are increasingly looking beyond their boundaries for help with innovation, working with customers, research companies, business partners, and universities--and even competitors. They are also expanding the purposes for which they consider external sources appropriate. Businesses today are using external sources for all phases of innovation, from discovery and development to commercialization and even product maintenance. Although these changes sound good and are benefiting a great many companies, they add a new layer of complexity to the manager's tasks. And, unfortunately, despite the growing acceptance of external innovation, the authors have found that many companies lack a sourcing strategy to guide them in managing it. They often take an ad hoc approach that produces uneven results--the very problem they are trying to avoid. Instead of dealing with external sources one by one and one at a time, companies should systematically examine and rationalize the increasingly important activity of innovation sourcing. The authors explain how companies can organize their use of external sources holistically, using innovation channels just as they manage specific distribution channels to reach end customers.

Case Authors : Sirkka Jarvenpaa, Jane Linder, Thomas H. Davenport, Juyne Linger

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Innovation, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023608)	-10023608	-	-
Year 1	3450987	-6572621	3450987	0.9434	3255648
Year 2	3975293	-2597328	7426280	0.89	3537997
Year 3	3948283	1350955	11374563	0.8396	3315055
Year 4	3248190	4599145	14622753	0.7921	2572871
TOTAL			14622753		12681570

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2657962

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. External Innovation shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of External Innovation have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at External Innovation often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at External Innovation needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023608)	-10023608	-	-
Year 1	3450987	-6572621	3450987	0.8696	3000858
Year 2	3975293	-2597328	7426280	0.7561	3005893
Year 3	3948283	1350955	11374563	0.6575	2596060
Year 4	3248190	4599145	14622753	0.5718	1857163
TOTAL					10459974

The Net NPV after 4 years is 436366

(10459974 - 10023608 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023608)	-10023608	-	-
Year 1	3450987	-6572621	3450987	0.8333	2875823
Year 2	3975293	-2597328	7426280	0.6944	2760620
Year 3	3948283	1350955	11374563	0.5787	2284886
Year 4	3248190	4599145	14622753	0.4823	1566450
TOTAL					9487778

The Net NPV after 4 years is -535830

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487778 - 10023608 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of External Innovation to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of External Innovation has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at External Innovation can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at External Innovation, then the stock price of the External Innovation should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at External Innovation should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy

References & Further Readings

Sirkka Jarvenpaa, Jane Linder, Thomas H. Davenport, Juyne Linger (2018), "Toward an Innovation Sourcing Strategy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.