Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Steven J. Spear, Anne D. Karshis. The Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) (referred as “Garvin Avenue” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Internet, Marketing, Product development, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) Case Study

By July 2000, Madison Avenue had experienced extraordinary growth in sales, employees, clients, and service offerings. From late 1999 to July 2000, the company had taken several initiatives to redesign its internal processes so that the firm could continue to grow, while maintaining the quality of its service offering and increasing efficiency enough to show profitability. Matt Garvin, the company's chief strategy officer, was considering a host of new service offerings to complement its core service--active management of online advertising. The question to Garvin was twofold: What opportunities made strategic sense for the company? What strategic opportunities matched well with the company's operational capabilities? How reliable, robust, and responsive are they? Can they handle the growth, scale, and scope that Garvin is contemplating. Can be taught alone as a strategy case or in conjunction with the (B) case to emphasize the product-process matching problem. If taught together, one case can be assigned to half the students, the other case to the other half to simulate more fully the organizational challenge of communicating across functional specialties--i.e., the service equivalent of product development, production, marketing, and sales.

Case Authors : Steven J. Spear, Anne D. Karshis

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Internet, Marketing, Product development, Supply chain

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025826)	-10025826	-	-
Year 1	3460146	-6565680	3460146	0.9434	3264289
Year 2	3982689	-2582991	7442835	0.89	3544579
Year 3	3964919	1381928	11407754	0.8396	3329022
Year 4	3228778	4610706	14636532	0.7921	2557495
TOTAL			14636532		12695385

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2669559

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Garvin Avenue have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Garvin Avenue shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Garvin Avenue often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Garvin Avenue needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025826)	-10025826	-	-
Year 1	3460146	-6565680	3460146	0.8696	3008823
Year 2	3982689	-2582991	7442835	0.7561	3011485
Year 3	3964919	1381928	11407754	0.6575	2606999
Year 4	3228778	4610706	14636532	0.5718	1846064
TOTAL					10473371

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447545

(10473371 - 10025826 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025826)	-10025826	-	-
Year 1	3460146	-6565680	3460146	0.8333	2883455
Year 2	3982689	-2582991	7442835	0.6944	2765756
Year 3	3964919	1381928	11407754	0.5787	2294513
Year 4	3228778	4610706	14636532	0.4823	1557088
TOTAL					9500813

The Net NPV after 4 years is -525013

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500813 - 10025826 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Garvin Avenue to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Garvin Avenue has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Garvin Avenue can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Garvin Avenue, then the stock price of the Garvin Avenue should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Garvin Avenue should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C)

References & Further Readings

Steven J. Spear, Anne D. Karshis (2018), "Madison Avenue: Digital Media Services (C) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.