Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ming Jian, Patricia Tan, Nandini Vijayaraghavan. The Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? (referred as “Healthway Sgx” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? Case Study

Alan Wong, an intern at Gem Asset Management, was pleasantly surprised when, as per his supervisor's instructions, reviewed the stock multiples (P/E, P/Sales, P/Book Value, and EV/EBITDA) of healthcare stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX). He recalled from his Equity Analysis 101 class at business school that the stock valuation metrics of companies in the same industry tended to trade within a narrow range. But certain stock valuation metrics of Healthway Medical Corporation appeared attractive in relation to SGX-listed peers. Alan performs the Du Pont analysis and financial statement analysis to ascertain if the Healthway stock was indeed attractive against the backdrop of its performance. Did the conclusions of his analysis support his initial impression?

Case Authors : Ming Jian, Patricia Tan, Nandini Vijayaraghavan

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020881)	-10020881	-	-
Year 1	3456240	-6564641	3456240	0.9434	3260604
Year 2	3974309	-2590332	7430549	0.89	3537121
Year 3	3958121	1367789	11388670	0.8396	3323315
Year 4	3242209	4609998	14630879	0.7921	2568133
TOTAL			14630879		12689173

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2668292

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Healthway Sgx have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Healthway Sgx shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Healthway Sgx often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Healthway Sgx needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020881)	-10020881	-	-
Year 1	3456240	-6564641	3456240	0.8696	3005426
Year 2	3974309	-2590332	7430549	0.7561	3005149
Year 3	3958121	1367789	11388670	0.6575	2602529
Year 4	3242209	4609998	14630879	0.5718	1853744
TOTAL					10466847

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445966

(10466847 - 10020881 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10020881)	-10020881	-	-
Year 1	3456240	-6564641	3456240	0.8333	2880200
Year 2	3974309	-2590332	7430549	0.6944	2759937
Year 3	3958121	1367789	11388670	0.5787	2290579
Year 4	3242209	4609998	14630879	0.4823	1563565
TOTAL					9494281

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526600

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494281 - 10020881 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Healthway Sgx to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Healthway Sgx has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Healthway Sgx can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Healthway Sgx, then the stock price of the Healthway Sgx should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Healthway Sgx should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant?

References & Further Readings

Ming Jian, Patricia Tan, Nandini Vijayaraghavan (2018), "Healthway Medical Corporation Limited: Do Stock Valuation Metrics Render Financial Analysis Redundant? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.