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Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Vania Fonseca, Luis Filipe Lages, Phillip H. Kim. The Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel (referred as “Deimos Avila” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Marketing, Organizational culture.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel Case Study


Mr. Nuno Avila, General Director at Deimos Engenharia (Deimos), a private Portuguese Aerospace Engineering company and a key player in the European space sector, faced a crucial strategic decision. In the past, Deimos easily secured research grants from their funding sources to conduct path-breaking projects. However, these agencies now require applicants to specify market applications for their projects to qualify. This was an unknown concept for Deimos, a company steeped in cutting-edge scientific research. Avila's objective was to build a market-driven innovation culture-a difficult prospect in a company that prides itself on its technological advancements. Avila found himself faced with several options for how to proceed. With the annual board meeting scheduled in six months, he needs to make some decisions soon about what markets to pursue with the company's MyFARM software service. He is unsure about the Board's willingness to adopt a new strategy, so he invites the Value Creation Wheel team to address this challenge. With their help, Avila prepares a set of recommendations that if successful, will enable Deimos to transform itself from a science- focused company to an international player that makes the perfect bridge between technology and market needs in the space sector.


Case Authors : Vania Fonseca, Luis Filipe Lages, Phillip H. Kim

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy, Marketing, Organizational culture




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019363) -10019363 - -
Year 1 3461442 -6557921 3461442 0.9434 3265511
Year 2 3982260 -2575661 7443702 0.89 3544197
Year 3 3947203 1371542 11390905 0.8396 3314148
Year 4 3241414 4612956 14632319 0.7921 2567503
TOTAL 14632319 12691360




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2671997

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Deimos Avila have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Deimos Avila shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Deimos Avila often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Deimos Avila needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019363) -10019363 - -
Year 1 3461442 -6557921 3461442 0.8696 3009950
Year 2 3982260 -2575661 7443702 0.7561 3011161
Year 3 3947203 1371542 11390905 0.6575 2595350
Year 4 3241414 4612956 14632319 0.5718 1853289
TOTAL 10469749


The Net NPV after 4 years is 450386

(10469749 - 10019363 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10019363) -10019363 - -
Year 1 3461442 -6557921 3461442 0.8333 2884535
Year 2 3982260 -2575661 7443702 0.6944 2765458
Year 3 3947203 1371542 11390905 0.5787 2284261
Year 4 3241414 4612956 14632319 0.4823 1563182
TOTAL 9497436


The Net NPV after 4 years is -521927

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497436 - 10019363 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Deimos Avila to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Deimos Avila has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Deimos Avila can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Deimos Avila, then the stock price of the Deimos Avila should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Deimos Avila should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel

References & Further Readings

Vania Fonseca, Luis Filipe Lages, Phillip H. Kim (2018), "Deimos: Expanding to a New Market Using the Value Creation Wheel Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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