Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett. The Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning (referred as “Scenario Planning” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Managing uncertainty, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Case Study

The business environment for many firms is changing rapidly and is becoming increasingly uncertain due to the disruption caused by new digital technologies, deregulation, new business models, and the threat of new competitive entrants. This dynamic competitive environment increases the level of uncertainty for senior executives and strategic planning teams who bear responsibility for the strategic development of the firm, particularly in terms of the future direction, scope, and the strategy required to deliver on corporate objectives. This in turn, places increased scrutiny on the strategic planning tools that are used to undertake a rational and comprehensive analysis of the competitive dynamics that inform strategy formulation. This article presents empirical findings and reflections on a scenario-planning project that sought to develop a long-term corporate level strategy. While scenario planning is an established constituent of the strategist's toolbox, the increasing level of dynamism and uncertainty in many markets has meant that it has seen a resurgence. This article presents empirical findings on how the scenario-planning tool was selected and applied before reflecting on the individual and organizational outcomes of using scenario planning to develop an organizational strategy in uncertain market conditions.

Case Authors : John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Managing uncertainty, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019021)	-10019021	-	-
Year 1	3446159	-6572862	3446159	0.9434	3251093
Year 2	3975684	-2597178	7421843	0.89	3538345
Year 3	3974734	1377556	11396577	0.8396	3337263
Year 4	3233152	4610708	14629729	0.7921	2560959
TOTAL			14629729		12687661

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2668640

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Scenario Planning have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Scenario Planning shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Scenario Planning often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Scenario Planning needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019021)	-10019021	-	-
Year 1	3446159	-6572862	3446159	0.8696	2996660
Year 2	3975684	-2597178	7421843	0.7561	3006188
Year 3	3974734	1377556	11396577	0.6575	2613452
Year 4	3233152	4610708	14629729	0.5718	1848565
TOTAL					10464866

The Net NPV after 4 years is 445845

(10464866 - 10019021 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019021)	-10019021	-	-
Year 1	3446159	-6572862	3446159	0.8333	2871799
Year 2	3975684	-2597178	7421843	0.6944	2760892
Year 3	3974734	1377556	11396577	0.5787	2300193
Year 4	3233152	4610708	14629729	0.4823	1559198
TOTAL					9492082

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526939

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492082 - 10019021 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Scenario Planning to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Scenario Planning has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Scenario Planning can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Scenario Planning, then the stock price of the Scenario Planning should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Scenario Planning should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning

References & Further Readings

John J. Oliver, Emma Parrett (2018), "Managing Future Uncertainty: Reevaluating the Role of Scenario Planning Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.