Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Alfred Schipke. The Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy (referred as “Imf Jamaica's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, International business, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy Case Study

Jamaica's relationship with the International Monetary Fund had often been tense. Currently, the country had no agreements with the IMF, and Prime Minister P.J. Patterson had sworn that his country would never again borrow from the Fund. Still, there were significant advantages to be gained from cooperation with the IMF. Not only was it a source of valuable technical expertise, but Fund approval of the government's policies could facilitate borrowing on world financial markets or from other multilateral organizations. Recently, the IMF appeared to be softening in its opposition to the government's policy direction. However, it seemed unlikely that the country could reach a borrowing agreement with the IMF without significant policy adjustments, particularly in the matter of the exchange rate. Under these circumstances, Dr. Davies had to determine whether he should approach the Fund for assistance, and if so, what policy changes the government would be willing to make in order to secure that assistance. HKS Case Number 1602.0

Case Authors : Alfred Schipke

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, International business, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005135)	-10005135	-	-
Year 1	3467169	-6537966	3467169	0.9434	3270914
Year 2	3961925	-2576041	7429094	0.89	3526099
Year 3	3951379	1375338	11380473	0.8396	3317654
Year 4	3235926	4611264	14616399	0.7921	2563156
TOTAL			14616399		12677824

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2672689

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Imf Jamaica's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Imf Jamaica's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Imf Jamaica's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Imf Jamaica's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005135)	-10005135	-	-
Year 1	3467169	-6537966	3467169	0.8696	3014930
Year 2	3961925	-2576041	7429094	0.7561	2995784
Year 3	3951379	1375338	11380473	0.6575	2598096
Year 4	3235926	4611264	14616399	0.5718	1850151
TOTAL					10458961

The Net NPV after 4 years is 453826

(10458961 - 10005135 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10005135)	-10005135	-	-
Year 1	3467169	-6537966	3467169	0.8333	2889308
Year 2	3961925	-2576041	7429094	0.6944	2751337
Year 3	3951379	1375338	11380473	0.5787	2286678
Year 4	3235926	4611264	14616399	0.4823	1560535
TOTAL					9487857

The Net NPV after 4 years is -517278

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487857 - 10005135 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Imf Jamaica's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Imf Jamaica's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Imf Jamaica's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Imf Jamaica's, then the stock price of the Imf Jamaica's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Imf Jamaica's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy

References & Further Readings

Alfred Schipke (2018), "Which Way to Go? Jamaica's Economic Stabilization Policy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.