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Hertz Corporation (A) Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Hertz Corporation (A) case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Hertz Corporation (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Timothy A. Luehrman, Douglas C. Scott. The Hertz Corporation (A) (referred as “Hertz Consortium” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Mergers & acquisitions, Reorganization.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Hertz Corporation (A) Case Study


Examines the leveraged buyout of Hertz in 2005, a complex, high-profile deal and a good example of cutting-edge practice in private equity. The first of a two-part series on the Hertz LBO, adopts the perspective of Clayton, Dubilier & Rice, the leader of a private equity consortium bidding to buy Hertz from Ford in an auction. Set at the final round of the auction, the immediate problem for the consortium is how much to raise its previous bid. A reasonable bid must be based upon how much value the private equity consortium can create through improvements in Hertz's global operations on the one hand, and a more efficient capital structure on the other. Presents detailed descriptive information on both topics, but does not include detailed financial projections, which must be formulated by students or supplied, for discussion purposes, by the instructor.


Case Authors : Timothy A. Luehrman, Douglas C. Scott

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Mergers & acquisitions, Reorganization




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Hertz Corporation (A) Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005261) -10005261 - -
Year 1 3472476 -6532785 3472476 0.9434 3275921
Year 2 3966663 -2566122 7439139 0.89 3530316
Year 3 3968058 1401936 11407197 0.8396 3331658
Year 4 3226292 4628228 14633489 0.7921 2555525
TOTAL 14633489 12693420




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2688159

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hertz Consortium have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hertz Consortium shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Hertz Corporation (A)

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hertz Consortium often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hertz Consortium needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005261) -10005261 - -
Year 1 3472476 -6532785 3472476 0.8696 3019544
Year 2 3966663 -2566122 7439139 0.7561 2999367
Year 3 3968058 1401936 11407197 0.6575 2609063
Year 4 3226292 4628228 14633489 0.5718 1844643
TOTAL 10472617


The Net NPV after 4 years is 467356

(10472617 - 10005261 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10005261) -10005261 - -
Year 1 3472476 -6532785 3472476 0.8333 2893730
Year 2 3966663 -2566122 7439139 0.6944 2754627
Year 3 3968058 1401936 11407197 0.5787 2296330
Year 4 3226292 4628228 14633489 0.4823 1555889
TOTAL 9500576


The Net NPV after 4 years is -504685

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500576 - 10005261 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hertz Consortium to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hertz Consortium has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hertz Consortium can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hertz Consortium, then the stock price of the Hertz Consortium should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hertz Consortium should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Hertz Corporation (A)

References & Further Readings

Timothy A. Luehrman, Douglas C. Scott (2018), "Hertz Corporation (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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