Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Howard Thomas, Miguel Soriano. The Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology (referred as “Myanmar Ffmcl” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Innovation, Social enterprise, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology Case Study

This case is set in 2017, three years after Fullerton Myanmar (FFMCL), a microfinance institution (MFI) in Myanmar, was founded by Fullerton Financial Holdings (FFH), a Singapore-based firm that invests and operates financial institutions in Asian emerging markets. Since its inception, FFMCL has been able to establish itself as one of the top five MFIs in Myanmar in terms of loans outstanding, despite numerous challenges related to the country's limited infrastructure, competition from other MFIs, the dispersion of the population and the difficulty in reaching rural communities. To achieve its mission of "Enabling Success, Enriching Lives", FFMCL has demonstrated tremendous growth in providing loans to microenterprises in Myanmar through the use of technology. The company has established an ambitious growth plan of expanding coverage fivefold in the next five years, and its leadership is pondering what is the best strategy it should follow to achieve this plan. Given the advances in technology as it relates to mobile financial services and big data analytics, what role does technology play in FFCML's plan, and what strategy should the company follow to achieve its plan?

Case Authors : Howard Thomas, Miguel Soriano

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Innovation, Social enterprise, Technology

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019842)	-10019842	-	-
Year 1	3447754	-6572088	3447754	0.9434	3252598
Year 2	3976032	-2596056	7423786	0.89	3538654
Year 3	3972810	1376754	11396596	0.8396	3335648
Year 4	3223738	4600492	14620334	0.7921	2553502
TOTAL			14620334		12680403

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2660561

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Myanmar Ffmcl have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Myanmar Ffmcl shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Myanmar Ffmcl often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Myanmar Ffmcl needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019842)	-10019842	-	-
Year 1	3447754	-6572088	3447754	0.8696	2998047
Year 2	3976032	-2596056	7423786	0.7561	3006451
Year 3	3972810	1376754	11396596	0.6575	2612187
Year 4	3223738	4600492	14620334	0.5718	1843183
TOTAL					10459868

The Net NPV after 4 years is 440026

(10459868 - 10019842 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10019842)	-10019842	-	-
Year 1	3447754	-6572088	3447754	0.8333	2873128
Year 2	3976032	-2596056	7423786	0.6944	2761133
Year 3	3972810	1376754	11396596	0.5787	2299080
Year 4	3223738	4600492	14620334	0.4823	1554658
TOTAL					9487999

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531843

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487999 - 10019842 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Myanmar Ffmcl to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Myanmar Ffmcl has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Myanmar Ffmcl can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Myanmar Ffmcl, then the stock price of the Myanmar Ffmcl should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Myanmar Ffmcl should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology

References & Further Readings

Howard Thomas, Miguel Soriano (2018), "Fullerton Myanmar: Delivering Financial Inclusion through Social Impact and Technology Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.