India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tulsi Jayakumar. The India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? (referred as “20b9 Demonetization” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Policy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? Case Study

On November 8, 2016, the Indian prime minister announced that in an effort to counter corruption, black money, and counterfeiting, high-value currency notes of 500 and 1,000 denominations would be withdrawn from circulation. The currency to be removed in the demonetization exercise was worth 15.4 trillion, or 86.9 per cent of the total value of currency in circulation. The old currency would be replaced with new 500 and 2,000 notes, but the transition would limit cash liquidity for 50 days in the Indian economy, which was heavily dependent on cash to facilitate both consumption and production. How would this process affect India, which had been identified as the world's fastest-growing economy? Would demonetization have the desired effect of purging the economy of black money and moving India toward a cashless economy with increased growth? Or would it simply bring India's remarkable growth story to a grinding halt and discourage investments? Tulsi Jayakumar is affiliated with SP Jain Institute of Management & Research.

Case Authors : Tulsi Jayakumar

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Policy

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013478)	-10013478	-	-
Year 1	3445059	-6568419	3445059	0.9434	3250056
Year 2	3957908	-2610511	7402967	0.89	3522524
Year 3	3971078	1360567	11374045	0.8396	3334194
Year 4	3238933	4599500	14612978	0.7921	2565538
TOTAL			14612978		12672312

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658834

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. 20b9 Demonetization shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of 20b9 Demonetization have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at 20b9 Demonetization often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at 20b9 Demonetization needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013478)	-10013478	-	-
Year 1	3445059	-6568419	3445059	0.8696	2995703
Year 2	3957908	-2610511	7402967	0.7561	2992747
Year 3	3971078	1360567	11374045	0.6575	2611048
Year 4	3238933	4599500	14612978	0.5718	1851870
TOTAL					10451369

The Net NPV after 4 years is 437891

(10451369 - 10013478 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013478)	-10013478	-	-
Year 1	3445059	-6568419	3445059	0.8333	2870883
Year 2	3957908	-2610511	7402967	0.6944	2748547
Year 3	3971078	1360567	11374045	0.5787	2298078
Year 4	3238933	4599500	14612978	0.4823	1561985
TOTAL					9479493

The Net NPV after 4 years is -533985

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9479493 - 10013478 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of 20b9 Demonetization to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of 20b9 Demonetization has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at 20b9 Demonetization can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at 20b9 Demonetization, then the stock price of the 20b9 Demonetization should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at 20b9 Demonetization should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money?

References & Further Readings

Tulsi Jayakumar (2018), "India's Demonetization: Purging Black Money? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.