Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sivakumar Alur, Durgaprasad M, Sulagna Mukherjee, U Srinivasa Rangan. The Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business (referred as “Ghee Mgs” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Strategy & Execution. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing, Strategy execution.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business Case Study

Mysore Ghee Store (MGS) produced and marketed ghee (clarified butter) in the city of Hyderabad in India. Most of its ghee sales were B2B to businesses like restaurants and sweetmeat makers that used it for food preparation. Decreasing B2B market margins and increased packed ghee sales to end users through the retail market prompted Satish Kumar, MGS's current owner, to enter the B2C market. He tied up with More (pronounced `moray'), a national retail chain for supplying packed ghee in October 2013. MGS's packed ghee was also made available across multiple retail channels ranging from independent mom and pop stores to regional/local chains' retail outlets and e-retailers. Packed MGS ghee sales through the various retail channels were somewhat encouraging. In April 2016, MGS was looking at two sets of issues. The first was how to proceed with the brand building driven marketing communication effort. The second was to rethink the strategic options in front of MGS and assess the need for and viability of a new strategic direction for the company.

Case Authors : Sivakumar Alur, Durgaprasad M, Sulagna Mukherjee, U Srinivasa Rangan

Topic : Strategy & Execution

Related Areas : Marketing, Strategy execution

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000479)	-10000479	-	-
Year 1	3462992	-6537487	3462992	0.9434	3266974
Year 2	3968990	-2568497	7431982	0.89	3532387
Year 3	3948008	1379511	11379990	0.8396	3314824
Year 4	3238744	4618255	14618734	0.7921	2565389
TOTAL			14618734		12679573

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2679094

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ghee Mgs have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ghee Mgs shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Strategy & Execution Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ghee Mgs often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ghee Mgs needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000479)	-10000479	-	-
Year 1	3462992	-6537487	3462992	0.8696	3011297
Year 2	3968990	-2568497	7431982	0.7561	3001127
Year 3	3948008	1379511	11379990	0.6575	2595879
Year 4	3238744	4618255	14618734	0.5718	1851762
TOTAL					10460066

The Net NPV after 4 years is 459587

(10460066 - 10000479 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10000479)	-10000479	-	-
Year 1	3462992	-6537487	3462992	0.8333	2885827
Year 2	3968990	-2568497	7431982	0.6944	2756243
Year 3	3948008	1379511	11379990	0.5787	2284727
Year 4	3238744	4618255	14618734	0.4823	1561894
TOTAL					9488691

The Net NPV after 4 years is -511788

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9488691 - 10000479 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ghee Mgs to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ghee Mgs has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ghee Mgs can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ghee Mgs, then the stock price of the Ghee Mgs should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ghee Mgs should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business

References & Further Readings

Sivakumar Alur, Durgaprasad M, Sulagna Mukherjee, U Srinivasa Rangan (2018), "Mysore Ghee Stores: Expansion Strategy for Clarified Butter Business Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.