GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sandeep Goyal, Amit Kapoor. The GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value (referred as “Gnfc Neem” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value Case Study

A radical change was triggered in the fertilizer industry in India in fiscal year 2015-16, following a policy directive by the government of India regarding mandatory neem-coated urea, a fertilizer component. The government's policy decision was made to restore the market dynamics by moving control of, and access to, urea from intermediaries and industries toward farmers. Gujarat Narmada Valley Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd. (GNFC) decided to leverage this policy directive as an opportunity to set up a fully-integrated value chain for the in-house production of neem oil and related product offerings. The decision to pursue an integrated value chain approach was driven by GNFC's belief that neem seed collection, a labour-intensive activity, presented a huge opportunity for the economic and social empowerment of rural women in India. GNFC launched the Neem Project, which showcased a differentiated business model to comply with the government's policy directive. By 2017, the project had benefited approximately 225,000 rural women. Although the project earned GNFC many accolades and the managing director at GNFC was confident about its potential, he was concerned about the challenges associated with scaling the initiative. Sandeep Goyal and Amit Kapoor are affiliated with Institute for Competitiveness.

Case Authors : Sandeep Goyal, Amit Kapoor

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023437)	-10023437	-	-
Year 1	3464064	-6559373	3464064	0.9434	3267985
Year 2	3969890	-2589483	7433954	0.89	3533188
Year 3	3941326	1351843	11375280	0.8396	3309213
Year 4	3226224	4578067	14601504	0.7921	2555472
TOTAL			14601504		12665858

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2642421

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Gnfc Neem shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Gnfc Neem have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Gnfc Neem often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Gnfc Neem needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023437)	-10023437	-	-
Year 1	3464064	-6559373	3464064	0.8696	3012230
Year 2	3969890	-2589483	7433954	0.7561	3001807
Year 3	3941326	1351843	11375280	0.6575	2591486
Year 4	3226224	4578067	14601504	0.5718	1844604
TOTAL					10450127

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426690

(10450127 - 10023437 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10023437)	-10023437	-	-
Year 1	3464064	-6559373	3464064	0.8333	2886720
Year 2	3969890	-2589483	7433954	0.6944	2756868
Year 3	3941326	1351843	11375280	0.5787	2280860
Year 4	3226224	4578067	14601504	0.4823	1555856
TOTAL					9480304

The Net NPV after 4 years is -543133

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9480304 - 10023437 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Gnfc Neem to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Gnfc Neem has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Gnfc Neem can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Gnfc Neem, then the stock price of the Gnfc Neem should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Gnfc Neem should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value

References & Further Readings

Sandeep Goyal, Amit Kapoor (2018), "GNFC Neem Project: The Ecosystem of Shared Value Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.