Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Anjani Datla, Asim Khwaja. The Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab (referred as “Psdf Punjab” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Economic development, Project management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab Case Study

In March 2012, a flagship vocational program in Punjab, Pakistan-the Punjab Skills Development Fund (PSDF)-hit a roadblock. After months of planning, a pilot phase of training courses was launched in four of Punjab's poorest districts. The classes filled up, but the researchers in charge of evaluating PSDF's programs were worried. Earlier research indicated that a large portion of the target population-including a large number of women-were interested in vocational training. But, when it came time to enroll in the classes only a small fraction of the population showed up. The researchers wanted to find out why, before the program scaled up, but any delays in rolling out the program funded by the United Kingdom's Department for International Development and the Punjab government would not bode well for PSDF. A unique public-private partnership, PSDF hoped to overhaul skills training in Pakistan by using an evidence-based, demand-driven approach. At the core of the model was a close partnership between researchers and practitioners. But embedding rigorous research in a development program did not in and of itself ensure success. Instead, with PSDF, the approach created serious tensions between policymakers and researchers, as administrative demands routinely flew in the face of applying evidence-based program design. Case number 2122.0

Case Authors : Anjani Datla, Asim Khwaja

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Economic development, Project management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017217)	-10017217	-	-
Year 1	3466016	-6551201	3466016	0.9434	3269826
Year 2	3953541	-2597660	7419557	0.89	3518637
Year 3	3960265	1362605	11379822	0.8396	3325115
Year 4	3235354	4597959	14615176	0.7921	2562703
TOTAL			14615176		12676282

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2659065

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Psdf Punjab have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Psdf Punjab shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Psdf Punjab often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Psdf Punjab needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017217)	-10017217	-	-
Year 1	3466016	-6551201	3466016	0.8696	3013927
Year 2	3953541	-2597660	7419557	0.7561	2989445
Year 3	3960265	1362605	11379822	0.6575	2603939
Year 4	3235354	4597959	14615176	0.5718	1849824
TOTAL					10457135

The Net NPV after 4 years is 439918

(10457135 - 10017217 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10017217)	-10017217	-	-
Year 1	3466016	-6551201	3466016	0.8333	2888347
Year 2	3953541	-2597660	7419557	0.6944	2745515
Year 3	3960265	1362605	11379822	0.5787	2291820
Year 4	3235354	4597959	14615176	0.4823	1560259
TOTAL					9485941

The Net NPV after 4 years is -531276

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485941 - 10017217 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Psdf Punjab to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Psdf Punjab has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Psdf Punjab can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Psdf Punjab, then the stock price of the Psdf Punjab should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Psdf Punjab should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab

References & Further Readings

Anjani Datla, Asim Khwaja (2018), "Seeking Skills, Finding Barriers: Vocational Training in Punjab Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.