Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by George Chacko, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman, Peter Hecht. The Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re (referred as “Catastrophe Bonds” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Financial markets, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re Case Study

In 2002, Swiss Re, the world's second--largest insurance company, is considering securitizing parts of its risk portfolio in the capital markets. This would be a first for the company that, until then, had never transferred risk off its balance sheet. Peter Giessmann, head of the Retrocession Group, is considering catastrophe bonds as a way of transferring risk. "Cat bonds" are securities whose payments depend on the probability of a catastrophe occurring, such as an earthquake or hurricane. This case outlines the traditional reinsurance market and securitization efforts that have taken place in the past and then focuses on Swiss Re's decision as a sell-side participant in the cat bond market.

Case Authors : George Chacko, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman, Peter Hecht

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Financial markets, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003128)	-10003128	-	-
Year 1	3470893	-6532235	3470893	0.9434	3274427
Year 2	3966998	-2565237	7437891	0.89	3530614
Year 3	3946019	1380782	11383910	0.8396	3313154
Year 4	3234409	4615191	14618319	0.7921	2561955
TOTAL			14618319		12680150

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677022

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Catastrophe Bonds shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Catastrophe Bonds have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Catastrophe Bonds often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Catastrophe Bonds needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003128)	-10003128	-	-
Year 1	3470893	-6532235	3470893	0.8696	3018168
Year 2	3966998	-2565237	7437891	0.7561	2999620
Year 3	3946019	1380782	11383910	0.6575	2594572
Year 4	3234409	4615191	14618319	0.5718	1849284
TOTAL					10461644

The Net NPV after 4 years is 458516

(10461644 - 10003128 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10003128)	-10003128	-	-
Year 1	3470893	-6532235	3470893	0.8333	2892411
Year 2	3966998	-2565237	7437891	0.6944	2754860
Year 3	3946019	1380782	11383910	0.5787	2283576
Year 4	3234409	4615191	14618319	0.4823	1559804
TOTAL					9490650

The Net NPV after 4 years is -512478

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9490650 - 10003128 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Catastrophe Bonds to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Catastrophe Bonds has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Catastrophe Bonds can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Catastrophe Bonds, then the stock price of the Catastrophe Bonds should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Catastrophe Bonds should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re

References & Further Readings

George Chacko, Vincent Dessain, Anders Sjoman, Peter Hecht (2018), "Catastrophe Bonds at Swiss Re Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.