Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Lars Hornuf, Armin Schwienbacher. The Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany (referred as “Crowdinvesting Crowd” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Innovation, Internet, Venture capital.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany Case Study

The Internet-based crowdinvesting market in Europe has developed significantly since its start in 2007 and has become an alternative source of finance for entrepreneurs to sell securities through the Internet to small investors. This market evidences a great variety in platform design and contract forms used by crowdinvesting platforms. By analyzing more detailed, hand-collected data on the complete set of successful and unsuccessful crowdinvesting campaigns run in Germany, this article tests whether different platform and contractual mechanisms affect crowd participation. The results show that crowd participation is largest when the minimum ticket size is small, the crowd is pooled in a financial vehicle, and the crowd is offered investments in the form of profit-participating loans. Moreover, the very same mechanisms increase the chances of achieving successful campaigns and raising a larger amount.

Case Authors : Lars Hornuf, Armin Schwienbacher

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Innovation, Internet, Venture capital

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024407)	-10024407	-	-
Year 1	3462191	-6562216	3462191	0.9434	3266218
Year 2	3954397	-2607819	7416588	0.89	3519399
Year 3	3970614	1362795	11387202	0.8396	3333804
Year 4	3245181	4607976	14632383	0.7921	2570487
TOTAL			14632383		12689909

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665502

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Crowdinvesting Crowd shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Crowdinvesting Crowd have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Crowdinvesting Crowd often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Crowdinvesting Crowd needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024407)	-10024407	-	-
Year 1	3462191	-6562216	3462191	0.8696	3010601
Year 2	3954397	-2607819	7416588	0.7561	2990092
Year 3	3970614	1362795	11387202	0.6575	2610743
Year 4	3245181	4607976	14632383	0.5718	1855443
TOTAL					10466879

The Net NPV after 4 years is 442472

(10466879 - 10024407 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10024407)	-10024407	-	-
Year 1	3462191	-6562216	3462191	0.8333	2885159
Year 2	3954397	-2607819	7416588	0.6944	2746109
Year 3	3970614	1362795	11387202	0.5787	2297809
Year 4	3245181	4607976	14632383	0.4823	1564999
TOTAL					9494076

The Net NPV after 4 years is -530331

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494076 - 10024407 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Crowdinvesting Crowd to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Crowdinvesting Crowd has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Crowdinvesting Crowd can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Crowdinvesting Crowd, then the stock price of the Crowdinvesting Crowd should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Crowdinvesting Crowd should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany

References & Further Readings

Lars Hornuf, Armin Schwienbacher (2018), "Internet-Based Entrepreneurial Finance: Lessons from Germany Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.