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Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Raman Narasimhan, Amardeep Sibia, Shirsha Ray Chaudhuri, S.R. Vigneshwaran. The Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food (referred as “Parota Id” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Technology & Operations. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food Case Study


iD Fresh Food (India) Private Ltd., is a leading ready-to-cook and eat packaged food company serving several cities in India. The company is known for its popular product, Idly-Dosa batter that it sells through retail outlets. iD started with packaging Idly-Dosa batter and has since diversified into Malabar Parota, Wheat Parota, Chapati, and Chutneys. In 2017, iD Fresh was a 1000+ member team with seven factory locations and eight offices - two plants in Bengaluru, one each in Chennai, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Mangalore, and Dubai. They manufactured more than 50,000 kg of Idli-Dosa batter per day which is equivalent to a million idlis. The company produced and sold nearly 15 ready-to-eat packaged food products and their flagship products include Idli-Dosa batter, Mini Parota, Malabar Parota, Whole Wheat Parota, Whole Wheat Chapati, and Whole Wheat Junior Parota. iD Fresh Food was in expansion phase and adding several outlets to its distribution network. Since all the products sold by iD Fresh Foods had short shelf life, anywhere between 4 and 7 days, forecasting demand accurately is important. iD would like to be in a state where there will be a greater degree of predictability in its operations. Ideally, they would like to know how much of each SKU should be loaded into each vehicle for the following day when a salesman starts his beat journey. The forecast for each store, based on past performance of each store in each beat, should be fairly accurate. This would then enable a macro-view of the business operations over a month and consequently help in production planning and operations for the future.


Case Authors : Raman Narasimhan, Amardeep Sibia, Shirsha Ray Chaudhuri, S.R. Vigneshwaran

Topic : Technology & Operations

Related Areas : Supply chain




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000669) -10000669 - -
Year 1 3451342 -6549327 3451342 0.9434 3255983
Year 2 3960355 -2588972 7411697 0.89 3524702
Year 3 3966748 1377776 11378445 0.8396 3330558
Year 4 3222974 4600750 14601419 0.7921 2552897
TOTAL 14601419 12664140


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663471

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Parota Id have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Parota Id shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Technology & Operations Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Parota Id often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Parota Id needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000669) -10000669 - -
Year 1 3451342 -6549327 3451342 0.8696 3001167
Year 2 3960355 -2588972 7411697 0.7561 2994597
Year 3 3966748 1377776 11378445 0.6575 2608201
Year 4 3222974 4600750 14601419 0.5718 1842746
TOTAL 10446711


The Net NPV after 4 years is 446042

(10446711 - 10000669 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10000669) -10000669 - -
Year 1 3451342 -6549327 3451342 0.8333 2876118
Year 2 3960355 -2588972 7411697 0.6944 2750247
Year 3 3966748 1377776 11378445 0.5787 2295572
Year 4 3222974 4600750 14601419 0.4823 1554289
TOTAL 9476226


The Net NPV after 4 years is -524443

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9476226 - 10000669 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Parota Id to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Parota Id has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Parota Id can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Parota Id, then the stock price of the Parota Id should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Parota Id should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Raman Narasimhan, Amardeep Sibia, Shirsha Ray Chaudhuri, S.R. Vigneshwaran (2018), "Demand Forecasting for Perishable Short Shelf Life Home Made Food at iD Fresh Food Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.