Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mary Gillett, Amy Horrocks. The Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity (referred as “Temarca Duke” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity Case Study

In late 2016, an analyst at Oliver Wyman (OW), was contemplating the high stakes of her new project. European riverboat company Temarca Group (Temarca) had just approached Duke Royalty (Duke) seeking ?9.0 million to expand its riverboat fleet at the time. The analyst had to consider the first potential investment for the newly-formed partnership. If a financing decision was made, Temarca would be one of the first investments in Duke's portfolio. The analyst had to ensure this investment was aligned with Duke's investment mandate, met the financial criteria, and delivered the targeted returns essential to please keystone investors. Similarly, she knew this deal would be highly scrutinized by the OW partners because Temarca would be OW's first fully-financed deal with Duke. With all this in mind, the analyst's task was to make a preliminary recommendation to the chief executive officer of Duke and a founding partner of OW about the soundness of the opportunity. She had to decide whether Duke should invest in Temarca or pass on this opportunity.

Case Authors : Mary Gillett, Amy Horrocks

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009741)	-10009741	-	-
Year 1	3462366	-6547375	3462366	0.9434	3266383
Year 2	3970488	-2576887	7432854	0.89	3533720
Year 3	3966509	1389622	11399363	0.8396	3330357
Year 4	3236321	4625943	14635684	0.7921	2563469
TOTAL			14635684		12693930

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2684189

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Temarca Duke have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Temarca Duke shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Temarca Duke often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Temarca Duke needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009741)	-10009741	-	-
Year 1	3462366	-6547375	3462366	0.8696	3010753
Year 2	3970488	-2576887	7432854	0.7561	3002259
Year 3	3966509	1389622	11399363	0.6575	2608044
Year 4	3236321	4625943	14635684	0.5718	1850377
TOTAL					10471433

The Net NPV after 4 years is 461692

(10471433 - 10009741 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009741)	-10009741	-	-
Year 1	3462366	-6547375	3462366	0.8333	2885305
Year 2	3970488	-2576887	7432854	0.6944	2757283
Year 3	3966509	1389622	11399363	0.5787	2295433
Year 4	3236321	4625943	14635684	0.4823	1560726
TOTAL					9498748

The Net NPV after 4 years is -510993

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498748 - 10009741 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Temarca Duke to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Temarca Duke has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Temarca Duke can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Temarca Duke, then the stock price of the Temarca Duke should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Temarca Duke should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity

References & Further Readings

Mary Gillett, Amy Horrocks (2018), "Sink or Float: An Oliver Wyman and Duke Royalty Investment Opportunity Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.