"One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Tore Strandvik, Maria Holmlund, Ilkka Lahteenmaki. The "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? (referred as “Disruptive Mindsets” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Disruptive innovation.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? Case Study

The significance of mindsets is apparent in everyday business life. As today's managers and companies face uncertainty and disruptive change in the business environment and markets, there is a growing need to understand and strategically address such change. This becomes challenging when disruptive market forces confront the institutional logic or rules of the game based on collectively acquired experience of doing business in the given field. In overcoming such challenges, managers' hidden reasoning remains an untapped potential while their existing mindset influences what they attend to and what they decide to do. This article elaborates a diagnostic framework, accompanied by a tool to help managers to make sense of disruptive markets and to reflect individually and collectively on possible courses of action. The framework has two principal dimensions-strategic scope and focus-that are further divided into three business elements of strategic market-oriented management: offering, customer, and market. The tool offers a practical means of profiling individuals' mindsets. In increasingly dynamic business environments, reflection capabilities represent a new source of competitive advantage.

Case Authors : Tore Strandvik, Maria Holmlund, Ilkka Lahteenmaki

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Disruptive innovation

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006369)	-10006369	-	-
Year 1	3449490	-6556879	3449490	0.9434	3254236
Year 2	3962341	-2594538	7411831	0.89	3526469
Year 3	3958360	1363822	11370191	0.8396	3323515
Year 4	3250597	4614419	14620788	0.7921	2574777
TOTAL			14620788		12678998

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2672629

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Disruptive Mindsets shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Disruptive Mindsets have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Disruptive Mindsets often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Disruptive Mindsets needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006369)	-10006369	-	-
Year 1	3449490	-6556879	3449490	0.8696	2999557
Year 2	3962341	-2594538	7411831	0.7561	2996099
Year 3	3958360	1363822	11370191	0.6575	2602686
Year 4	3250597	4614419	14620788	0.5718	1858539
TOTAL					10456881

The Net NPV after 4 years is 450512

(10456881 - 10006369 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10006369)	-10006369	-	-
Year 1	3449490	-6556879	3449490	0.8333	2874575
Year 2	3962341	-2594538	7411831	0.6944	2751626
Year 3	3958360	1363822	11370191	0.5787	2290718
Year 4	3250597	4614419	14620788	0.4823	1567610
TOTAL					9484529

The Net NPV after 4 years is -521840

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9484529 - 10006369 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Disruptive Mindsets to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Disruptive Mindsets has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Disruptive Mindsets can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Disruptive Mindsets, then the stock price of the Disruptive Mindsets should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Disruptive Mindsets should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of "One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption?

References & Further Readings

Tore Strandvik, Maria Holmlund, Ilkka Lahteenmaki (2018), ""One of These Days, Things Are Going to Change!" How Do You Make Sense of Market Disruption? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.