Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Victoria Ivashina, Marc Homsy. The Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company (referred as “Qalaa Egyptian” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Entrepreneurial finance, Financial management, Government, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company Case Study

This case follows Qalaa Holdings, a successful Egypt-based private equity firm, and gives insight into the types of investments it pursued, its growth over time, and the limited partner base it had at hand. It also allows students to consider and debate whether the traditional private equity fund structure can be applied in Africa. In particular, the case focuses on one of Qalaa's largest and most difficult greenfield infrastructure projects: Egyptian Refining Company. It tracks the project from its structuring stage in 2007, through the adverse periods of the global financial crisis and Arab Spring, until 2012. At this time, Hisham El-Khazindar, co-founder and managing director, had to decide on the fate of the project. While passionate about contributing to Africa's development, he could not ignore the challenges: the sheer size and complexity of the project, the high financial stakes, and the region's on-going unstable political environment.

Case Authors : Victoria Ivashina, Marc Homsy

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Entrepreneurial finance, Financial management, Government, Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016885)	-10016885	-	-
Year 1	3461060	-6555825	3461060	0.9434	3265151
Year 2	3980419	-2575406	7441479	0.89	3542559
Year 3	3965314	1389908	11406793	0.8396	3329354
Year 4	3242921	4632829	14649714	0.7921	2568697
TOTAL			14649714		12705761

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2688876

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Qalaa Egyptian have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Qalaa Egyptian shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Qalaa Egyptian often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Qalaa Egyptian needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016885)	-10016885	-	-
Year 1	3461060	-6555825	3461060	0.8696	3009617
Year 2	3980419	-2575406	7441479	0.7561	3009769
Year 3	3965314	1389908	11406793	0.6575	2607258
Year 4	3242921	4632829	14649714	0.5718	1854151
TOTAL					10480795

The Net NPV after 4 years is 463910

(10480795 - 10016885 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10016885)	-10016885	-	-
Year 1	3461060	-6555825	3461060	0.8333	2884217
Year 2	3980419	-2575406	7441479	0.6944	2764180
Year 3	3965314	1389908	11406793	0.5787	2294742
Year 4	3242921	4632829	14649714	0.4823	1563909
TOTAL					9507047

The Net NPV after 4 years is -509838

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9507047 - 10016885 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Qalaa Egyptian to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Qalaa Egyptian has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Qalaa Egyptian can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Qalaa Egyptian, then the stock price of the Qalaa Egyptian should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Qalaa Egyptian should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company

References & Further Readings

Victoria Ivashina, Marc Homsy (2018), "Qalaa Holdings and the Egyptian Refining Company Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.