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License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Ka-Fu Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Carola Ramon-Berjano. The License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? (referred as “Town Planning” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Managing uncertainty, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? Case Study


Investigates the government's decision-making process in revising Town Planning Amendment Bill 2003. Aimed at striking a balance between streamlining procedures and enhancing public participation in the town-planning process, the revision injects more variability into the plan-making and application process. The amendments, thus, increase uncertainty, given that special interests and public administrators have greater discretion over determining the type, pace, and pattern of development at the district level. Identifies the effect of increasing uncertainty and development delays. The findings provide a factual base for policy and business strategy discussions.


Case Authors : Ka-Fu Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Carola Ramon-Berjano

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Managing uncertainty, Policy, Regulation, Strategic planning




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018457) -10018457 - -
Year 1 3466981 -6551476 3466981 0.9434 3270737
Year 2 3954466 -2597010 7421447 0.89 3519461
Year 3 3963626 1366616 11385073 0.8396 3327937
Year 4 3228166 4594782 14613239 0.7921 2557010
TOTAL 14613239 12675144


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2656687

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Town Planning have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Town Planning shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Town Planning often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Town Planning needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018457) -10018457 - -
Year 1 3466981 -6551476 3466981 0.8696 3014766
Year 2 3954466 -2597010 7421447 0.7561 2990144
Year 3 3963626 1366616 11385073 0.6575 2606148
Year 4 3228166 4594782 14613239 0.5718 1845714
TOTAL 10456773


The Net NPV after 4 years is 438316

(10456773 - 10018457 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10018457) -10018457 - -
Year 1 3466981 -6551476 3466981 0.8333 2889151
Year 2 3954466 -2597010 7421447 0.6944 2746157
Year 3 3963626 1366616 11385073 0.5787 2293765
Year 4 3228166 4594782 14613239 0.4823 1556793
TOTAL 9485866


The Net NPV after 4 years is -532591

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485866 - 10018457 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Town Planning to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Town Planning has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Town Planning can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Town Planning, then the stock price of the Town Planning should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Town Planning should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Ka-Fu Wong, Alexandra Yiu, Carola Ramon-Berjano (2018), "License to Build: Town Planning Legislation in Hong Kong? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.