The First Credit Bureau Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for The First Credit Bureau case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. The First Credit Bureau case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Wei Li, Bidhan Parmar. The The First Credit Bureau (referred as “Bureau Credit” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of The First Credit Bureau Case Study

This is a Darden case study.This case can be used in courses on credit markets, emerging markets finance, and economic and financial development. The Pragma Corporation, a northern Virginia-based international development consulting firm, won a bid put out in 2001 by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to help develop a credit bureau in Kazakhstan. Between 2001 and 2003, Javier Piedra, a senior consultant at Pragma, and a team of four local consultants assessed the market opportunity, prepared a business plan, and made the case to senior Kazakhstani government and private-sector officials that it was possible to develop a well-functioning private credit bureau based on international best practices. Key stakeholders accepted much of FSI's theoretical argument, but it was not clear that the financial community was willing to transfer their proprietary data, perhaps their most important asset to a credit bureau. To move forward, Piedra and his team had to negotiate with various stakeholders around two complex issues--the ownership and governance structure for the credit bureau and a legal framework for sharing credit data--and persuade a majority of the banks to share their data. The case gives detailed information on the credit bureau's business plan.

Case Authors : Wei Li, Bidhan Parmar

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for The First Credit Bureau Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025035)	-10025035	-	-
Year 1	3444496	-6580539	3444496	0.9434	3249525
Year 2	3979847	-2600692	7424343	0.89	3542050
Year 3	3937237	1336545	11361580	0.8396	3305780
Year 4	3250223	4586768	14611803	0.7921	2574481
TOTAL			14611803		12671835

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2646800

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Bureau Credit shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Bureau Credit have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of The First Credit Bureau

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Bureau Credit often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Bureau Credit needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025035)	-10025035	-	-
Year 1	3444496	-6580539	3444496	0.8696	2995214
Year 2	3979847	-2600692	7424343	0.7561	3009336
Year 3	3937237	1336545	11361580	0.6575	2588797
Year 4	3250223	4586768	14611803	0.5718	1858326
TOTAL					10451673

The Net NPV after 4 years is 426638

(10451673 - 10025035 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025035)	-10025035	-	-
Year 1	3444496	-6580539	3444496	0.8333	2870413
Year 2	3979847	-2600692	7424343	0.6944	2763783
Year 3	3937237	1336545	11361580	0.5787	2278494
Year 4	3250223	4586768	14611803	0.4823	1567430
TOTAL					9480120

The Net NPV after 4 years is -544915

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9480120 - 10025035 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Bureau Credit to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Bureau Credit has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Bureau Credit can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Bureau Credit, then the stock price of the Bureau Credit should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Bureau Credit should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of The First Credit Bureau

References & Further Readings

Wei Li, Bidhan Parmar (2018), "The First Credit Bureau Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.