Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael J. Enright, Vincent Mak. The Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 (referred as “Hong Mainland” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Marketing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 Case Study

From March to May 2003, Hong Kong's tourism industry underwent a serious downturn during the outbreak of SARS in the territory, which caused 1,755 cases in Hong Kong before July. There was practically no inbound tourism between April 2 and May 23, during which the World Health Organization advised the public to consider postponing all but essential travel to Hong Kong. Then, in a dramatic twist, the industry received a significant boost in late July, when residents of four nearby mainland Chinese cities were allowed to apply to visit Hong Kong on an individual basis as part of the mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement. Formerly, mainland Chinese tourists could visit Hong Kong only with tour groups. By September, tourists from the major cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen could also visit Hong Kong on an individual basis. Mainland tourists literally began to flood in as a result, bringing up total visitor arrival figures to a level that even surpassed pre-SARS statistics. Greater easing of travel restrictions was expected in the first half of 2004. How could Hong Kong's SMEs, much battered by the economic woes in recent years that were capped by the SARS attack, capitalize on the new opportunities offered by the liberalization of mainland travel?

Case Authors : Michael J. Enright, Vincent Mak

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Marketing

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014860)	-10014860	-	-
Year 1	3453341	-6561519	3453341	0.9434	3257869
Year 2	3975584	-2585935	7428925	0.89	3538256
Year 3	3957711	1371776	11386636	0.8396	3322970
Year 4	3241830	4613606	14628466	0.7921	2567833
TOTAL			14628466		12686928

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2672068

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hong Mainland shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hong Mainland have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hong Mainland often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hong Mainland needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014860)	-10014860	-	-
Year 1	3453341	-6561519	3453341	0.8696	3002905
Year 2	3975584	-2585935	7428925	0.7561	3006113
Year 3	3957711	1371776	11386636	0.6575	2602259
Year 4	3241830	4613606	14628466	0.5718	1853527
TOTAL					10464804

The Net NPV after 4 years is 449944

(10464804 - 10014860 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014860)	-10014860	-	-
Year 1	3453341	-6561519	3453341	0.8333	2877784
Year 2	3975584	-2585935	7428925	0.6944	2760822
Year 3	3957711	1371776	11386636	0.5787	2290342
Year 4	3241830	4613606	14628466	0.4823	1563383
TOTAL					9492331

The Net NPV after 4 years is -522529

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9492331 - 10014860 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hong Mainland to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hong Mainland has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hong Mainland can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hong Mainland, then the stock price of the Hong Mainland should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hong Mainland should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003

References & Further Readings

Michael J. Enright, Vincent Mak (2018), "Mainland China's Travel Liberalisation and Hong Kong's SMEs in Late 2003 Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.