Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Russell Walker, Joanna Wilson. The Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century (referred as “Beef Horsemeat” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Global Business. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Economics, International business, Public relations, Risk management, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

Case Description of Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century Case Study

In January 2013, Irish authorities were the first to uncover the year's first food sourcing scandal: horsemeat sold as beef on supermarket shelves. It was not long before regulators and retailers realized the problem was truly a continental one. The incident involved French exporters, Luxembourger production facilities, Cypriot and Dutch meat traders, British and Swedish retailers, and Romanian horsemeat. Food service providers and retailers were forced to test beef products to ensure they were horse-free, pulling products that contained traces of equine meat. British supermarkets alone disposed of an estimated 10 million "beef" burgers in the wake of the scandal. This case is an example of the challenges of managing the complex global supply chains that make up the modern food industry. In this class discussion, students will use concepts from management, economics, and public policy to assess the damage of this event and to analyze strategies for preventing similar incidents in the future.

Case Authors : Russell Walker, Joanna Wilson

Topic : Global Business

Related Areas : Economics, International business, Public relations, Risk management, Supply chain

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century Case Study

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027323) -10027323 - -
Year 1 3460207 -6567116 3460207 0.9434 3264346
Year 2 3968634 -2598482 7428841 0.89 3532070
Year 3 3954270 1355788 11383111 0.8396 3320081
Year 4 3232387 4588175 14615498 0.7921 2560353
TOTAL 14615498 12676851

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2649528

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Payback Period
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Beef Horsemeat have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Beef Horsemeat shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Global Business Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Beef Horsemeat often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Beef Horsemeat needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027323) -10027323 - -
Year 1 3460207 -6567116 3460207 0.8696 3008876
Year 2 3968634 -2598482 7428841 0.7561 3000857
Year 3 3954270 1355788 11383111 0.6575 2599997
Year 4 3232387 4588175 14615498 0.5718 1848128
TOTAL 10457858

The Net NPV after 4 years is 430535

(10457858 - 10027323 )

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10027323) -10027323 - -
Year 1 3460207 -6567116 3460207 0.8333 2883506
Year 2 3968634 -2598482 7428841 0.6944 2755996
Year 3 3954270 1355788 11383111 0.5787 2288351
Year 4 3232387 4588175 14615498 0.4823 1558829
TOTAL 9486681

The Net NPV after 4 years is -540642

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486681 - 10027323 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Beef Horsemeat to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Beef Horsemeat has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Beef Horsemeat can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Beef Horsemeat, then the stock price of the Beef Horsemeat should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Beef Horsemeat should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

References & Further Readings

Russell Walker, Joanna Wilson (2018), "Horse Trading: Food Sourcing in the Twenty-First Century Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.