Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Michael J. Roberts, Nabil N. El-Hage. The Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad (referred as “Johnstone Prospective” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad Case Study

The case focuses on Lance Johnstone, a former NFL player, who has dabbled in real estate development during his playing career, and now, as a retired player, is trying to pursue the development of a 10-unit rental apartment building in a depressed area of Philadelphia, his hometown. The case presents the process Johnstone and his partner went through to purchase the vacant land, develop a construction budget and financing plan, and asks students to evaluate the prospective financials for this development and assess the viability of the development plan and its prospective returns. The case then ends with a change in the fundamental assumption - the bank has withdrawn and a new bank will loan less than the original plan, and the construction budget has come in considerably higher. Students must evaluate the plan and prospective returns in light of this new information.

Case Authors : Michael J. Roberts, Nabil N. El-Hage

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Financial management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025244)	-10025244	-	-
Year 1	3449509	-6575735	3449509	0.9434	3254254
Year 2	3958361	-2617374	7407870	0.89	3522927
Year 3	3974627	1357253	11382497	0.8396	3337173
Year 4	3243857	4601110	14626354	0.7921	2569439
TOTAL			14626354		12683793

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2658549

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Johnstone Prospective shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Johnstone Prospective have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Johnstone Prospective often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Johnstone Prospective needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025244)	-10025244	-	-
Year 1	3449509	-6575735	3449509	0.8696	2999573
Year 2	3958361	-2617374	7407870	0.7561	2993090
Year 3	3974627	1357253	11382497	0.6575	2613382
Year 4	3243857	4601110	14626354	0.5718	1854686
TOTAL					10460730

The Net NPV after 4 years is 435486

(10460730 - 10025244 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10025244)	-10025244	-	-
Year 1	3449509	-6575735	3449509	0.8333	2874591
Year 2	3958361	-2617374	7407870	0.6944	2748862
Year 3	3974627	1357253	11382497	0.5787	2300131
Year 4	3243857	4601110	14626354	0.4823	1564360
TOTAL					9487944

The Net NPV after 4 years is -537300

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487944 - 10025244 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Johnstone Prospective to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Johnstone Prospective has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Johnstone Prospective can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Johnstone Prospective, then the stock price of the Johnstone Prospective should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Johnstone Prospective should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad

References & Further Readings

Michael J. Roberts, Nabil N. El-Hage (2018), "Lance Johnstone: Developing 3000 North Broad Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.