Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. GOQii: Envisioning a New Fitness Future (A) case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Sonia Mehrotra, Arun Pereira. The GOQii: Envisioning a New Fitness Future (A) (referred as “Goqii Goqii's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Technology.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

Gondal, a serial entrepreneur, was supported by top technology experts in GOQii's angel round of funding. Case A details GOQii's journey from its incorporation in 2014 until April 2016. It describes GOQii's product-service offering of wearable fitness band technology supplemented with remote personalized coaching, its launch in the Indian market, and its emergence as a pioneer of a new category of product in the health and lifestyle space that had the ability to integrate human assistance with built-in artificial intelligence. Gondal realized that while people were adopting wearable technology solutions for healthy living, there was still a lack of awareness and an air of hesitancy about the usefulness of and need for wearable devices in India. Gondal's dilemma: whether to continue GOQii's positioning as "wearable technology with personalized coaching" and aggressively expand globally, or consolidate and broaden his present offering by embracing the customer more fully and focusing on the "customer healthcare journey" in India. Case B picks up from October 2016, by which time GOQii had consolidated and broadened its offering by focusing on the "customer journey" in India. It had successfully on-boarded different service providers such as doctors, a diagnostic center chain, a hospital chain, sports and grocery stores and Axis Bank (for payments) on their platform, thus providing a complete health ecosystem to the GOQii user. By the second quarter of 2016, GOQii had achieved the number one spot in the Indian wearables market. The immediate decision that GOQii core team need to make is whether they should tie up with multiple insurance providers or explore the possibility of partnering with a reinsurer to complete the entire health spectrum services offering on their data platform. The two cases allow for an in-depth discussion on the key role of a business model in ensuring the competitive advantage and sustained success of a business venture.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 6 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10015494) | -10015494 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3467604 | -6547890 | 3467604 | 0.9434 | 3271325 |

Year 2 | 3968133 | -2579757 | 7435737 | 0.89 | 3531624 |

Year 3 | 3967527 | 1387770 | 11403264 | 0.8396 | 3331212 |

Year 4 | 3241485 | 4629255 | 14644749 | 0.7921 | 2567560 |

TOTAL | 14644749 | 12701721 |

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,

How it is calculated,

How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and

Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

Capital Budgeting Approaches

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period

2. Profitability Index

3. Internal Rate of Return

4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on
**Discounted Cash Flow **
technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Goqii Goqii's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Goqii Goqii's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn

**Less** Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.

r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate.
Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.

Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.

Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.

Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.

Step 4 – Selection of the project

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Goqii Goqii's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Goqii Goqii's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 15 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10015494) | -10015494 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3467604 | -6547890 | 3467604 | 0.8696 | 3015308 |

Year 2 | 3968133 | -2579757 | 7435737 | 0.7561 | 3000479 |

Year 3 | 3967527 | 1387770 | 11403264 | 0.6575 | 2608713 |

Year 4 | 3241485 | 4629255 | 14644749 | 0.5718 | 1853330 |

TOTAL | 10477829 |

(10477829 - 10015494 )

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years | Cash Flow | Net Cash Flow | Cumulative Cash Flow |
Discount Rate @ 20 % |
Discounted Cash Flows |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Year 0 | (10015494) | -10015494 | - | - | |

Year 1 | 3467604 | -6547890 | 3467604 | 0.8333 | 2889670 |

Year 2 | 3968133 | -2579757 | 7435737 | 0.6944 | 2755648 |

Year 3 | 3967527 | 1387770 | 11403264 | 0.5787 | 2296023 |

Year 4 | 3241485 | 4629255 | 14644749 | 0.4823 | 1563216 |

TOTAL | 9504557 |

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9504557 - 10015494 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Goqii Goqii's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Goqii Goqii's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Goqii Goqii's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Goqii Goqii's, then the stock price of the Goqii Goqii's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Goqii Goqii's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

** Sonia Mehrotra, Arun Pereira (2018)**, "GOQii: Envisioning a New Fitness Future (A) Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.

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