Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Heidi M.J. Bertels, Michael S. Lehman. The Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? (referred as “Nickolay Doll” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Product development, Strategic planning.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? Case Study

Nickolay Lamm, a recent university graduate, has been interested in entrepreneurship since his childhood. After running two small start-ups as a teen, graduating with a marketing degree and being laid off from his first traditional job, he finds himself working as a freelance designer. His focus is on creating original visual representations of data that go viral. Nickolay's speculative illustration of a fashion doll based on the proportions of an average 19-year old American woman (referred to as "Normal Barbie" by online media) creates considerable market buzz. His "average is beautiful" doll concept is widely covered in online media channels including the Huffington Post, BBC Radio, Cosmopolitan, CNN, Good Morning America, MSN and Smithsonian. When Nickolay starts to receive requests from parents asking where they can purchase an actual physical "average" doll based on his visual representation, he asks himself a question: "Is this the entrepreneurial opportunity for which I've been waiting?" In the end, Nickolay has a decision to make: 1) explore the feasibility of a partnership with Mattel, Hasbro or another established player 2) launch his own company, either with business partners or by himself; or 3) wait for a better entrepreneurial opportunity to emerge...

Case Authors : Heidi M.J. Bertels, Michael S. Lehman

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas : Product development, Strategic planning

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009121)	-10009121	-	-
Year 1	3466431	-6542690	3466431	0.9434	3270218
Year 2	3956232	-2586458	7422663	0.89	3521032
Year 3	3950295	1363837	11372958	0.8396	3316744
Year 4	3241818	4605655	14614776	0.7921	2567823
TOTAL			14614776		12675818

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2666697

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Nickolay Doll shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Nickolay Doll have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Nickolay Doll often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Nickolay Doll needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009121)	-10009121	-	-
Year 1	3466431	-6542690	3466431	0.8696	3014288
Year 2	3956232	-2586458	7422663	0.7561	2991480
Year 3	3950295	1363837	11372958	0.6575	2597383
Year 4	3241818	4605655	14614776	0.5718	1853520
TOTAL					10456671

The Net NPV after 4 years is 447550

(10456671 - 10009121 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009121)	-10009121	-	-
Year 1	3466431	-6542690	3466431	0.8333	2888693
Year 2	3956232	-2586458	7422663	0.6944	2747383
Year 3	3950295	1363837	11372958	0.5787	2286050
Year 4	3241818	4605655	14614776	0.4823	1563377
TOTAL					9485503

The Net NPV after 4 years is -523618

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485503 - 10009121 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Nickolay Doll to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Nickolay Doll has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Nickolay Doll can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Nickolay Doll, then the stock price of the Nickolay Doll should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Nickolay Doll should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing?

References & Further Readings

Heidi M.J. Bertels, Michael S. Lehman (2018), "Average is Beautiful: An Opportunity Worth Pursuing? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.