Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Oana Branzei, Michael Valente. The Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model (referred as “Honey Holder” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Innovation & Entrepreneurship. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model Case Study

The founding entrepreneur of Honey Care Africa (Honey Care) revitalized Kenya's national honey industry by focusing on small-holder farmers across the country. Central to the success was an innovative business model: a synergistic partnership between the development sector, the private sector, and rural communities that drew on the core competencies of each party as well as their complementary roles. This tripartite model was combined with local manufacturing of beehives, effective beekeeping training and community-based extension service provision, and the provision of a guaranteed market to small-holder farmers through forward contracts as well as prompt payments. Four years later, Honey Care has achieved 68% market share in Kenya, distributes several brands of organic, fair-trade honey internationally, and is a lead distributor of beeswax. The business model has been successfully replicated in neighboring Tanzania, with expansion plans to Uganda and Sudan.

Case Authors : Oana Branzei, Michael Valente

Topic : Innovation & Entrepreneurship

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028633)	-10028633	-	-
Year 1	3467174	-6561459	3467174	0.9434	3270919
Year 2	3961437	-2600022	7428611	0.89	3525665
Year 3	3958239	1358217	11386850	0.8396	3323414
Year 4	3248766	4606983	14635616	0.7921	2573327
TOTAL			14635616		12693324

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664691

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Honey Holder have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Honey Holder shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Innovation & Entrepreneurship Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Honey Holder often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Honey Holder needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028633)	-10028633	-	-
Year 1	3467174	-6561459	3467174	0.8696	3014934
Year 2	3961437	-2600022	7428611	0.7561	2995416
Year 3	3958239	1358217	11386850	0.6575	2602606
Year 4	3248766	4606983	14635616	0.5718	1857493
TOTAL					10470448

The Net NPV after 4 years is 441815

(10470448 - 10028633 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028633)	-10028633	-	-
Year 1	3467174	-6561459	3467174	0.8333	2889312
Year 2	3961437	-2600022	7428611	0.6944	2750998
Year 3	3958239	1358217	11386850	0.5787	2290648
Year 4	3248766	4606983	14635616	0.4823	1566727
TOTAL					9497685

The Net NPV after 4 years is -530948

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497685 - 10028633 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Honey Holder to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Honey Holder has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Honey Holder can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Honey Holder, then the stock price of the Honey Holder should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Honey Holder should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model

References & Further Readings

Oana Branzei, Michael Valente (2018), "Honey Care Africa (A): A Different Business Model Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.