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Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Joseph L. Badaracco Jr., Jerry Useem. The Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version (referred as “Universal's Roommate” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Decision making, Ethics, Mergers & acquisitions, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version Case Study


A young investment banker returns home one night to find that her roommate and best friend has been laid off from Universal Bank because Universal is shutting down its capital finance group. Her roommate makes her promise to keep this information confidential because the news is not to be disclosed to the market for several days. The protaganist knows, however, that Universal's capital finance group is collaborating with her own investment bank on a leveraged buyout deal and that Universal's withdrawal could have potentially disastrous ramifications for the deal if her own investment bank is not notified immediately. She must decide whether to break her promise to her friend or to remain silent and expose her own company to great risk.


Case Authors : Joseph L. Badaracco Jr., Jerry Useem

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Decision making, Ethics, Mergers & acquisitions, Risk management




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015487) -10015487 - -
Year 1 3463350 -6552137 3463350 0.9434 3267311
Year 2 3962109 -2590028 7425459 0.89 3526263
Year 3 3957570 1367542 11383029 0.8396 3322852
Year 4 3230074 4597616 14613103 0.7921 2558521
TOTAL 14613103 12674947


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2659460

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Profitability Index
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Universal's Roommate shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Universal's Roommate have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Universal's Roommate often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Universal's Roommate needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015487) -10015487 - -
Year 1 3463350 -6552137 3463350 0.8696 3011609
Year 2 3962109 -2590028 7425459 0.7561 2995924
Year 3 3957570 1367542 11383029 0.6575 2602167
Year 4 3230074 4597616 14613103 0.5718 1846805
TOTAL 10456504


The Net NPV after 4 years is 441017

(10456504 - 10015487 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10015487) -10015487 - -
Year 1 3463350 -6552137 3463350 0.8333 2886125
Year 2 3962109 -2590028 7425459 0.6944 2751465
Year 3 3957570 1367542 11383029 0.5787 2290260
Year 4 3230074 4597616 14613103 0.4823 1557713
TOTAL 9485563


The Net NPV after 4 years is -529924

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9485563 - 10015487 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Universal's Roommate to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Universal's Roommate has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Universal's Roommate can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Universal's Roommate, then the stock price of the Universal's Roommate should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Universal's Roommate should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Joseph L. Badaracco Jr., Jerry Useem (2018), "Analyst's Dilemma (A), Spanish Version Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.