Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Robert C. Pozen, Brian Conroy. The Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU (referred as “Rating Reform” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial management, Government, Security & privacy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU Case Study

The purpose of this note is to explore reform options for the credit rating industry. The note examines the ways in which credit rating agencies contributed to the recent financial crisis, particularly through ratings of securitized products and sovereign debt. It further describes changes already enacted by the US and the EU, as well as other reform proposals considered by lawmakers.

Case Authors : Robert C. Pozen, Brian Conroy

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial management, Government, Security & privacy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013075)	-10013075	-	-
Year 1	3458237	-6554838	3458237	0.9434	3262488
Year 2	3973831	-2581007	7432068	0.89	3536695
Year 3	3956020	1375013	11388088	0.8396	3321551
Year 4	3226336	4601349	14614424	0.7921	2555560
TOTAL			14614424		12676294

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2663219

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Internal Rate of Return
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Rating Reform have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Rating Reform shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Rating Reform often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Rating Reform needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013075)	-10013075	-	-
Year 1	3458237	-6554838	3458237	0.8696	3007163
Year 2	3973831	-2581007	7432068	0.7561	3004787
Year 3	3956020	1375013	11388088	0.6575	2601147
Year 4	3226336	4601349	14614424	0.5718	1844668
TOTAL					10457765

The Net NPV after 4 years is 444690

(10457765 - 10013075 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10013075)	-10013075	-	-
Year 1	3458237	-6554838	3458237	0.8333	2881864
Year 2	3973831	-2581007	7432068	0.6944	2759605
Year 3	3956020	1375013	11388088	0.5787	2289363
Year 4	3226336	4601349	14614424	0.4823	1555910
TOTAL					9486743

The Net NPV after 4 years is -526332

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486743 - 10013075 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Rating Reform to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Rating Reform has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Rating Reform can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Rating Reform, then the stock price of the Rating Reform should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Rating Reform should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU

References & Further Readings

Robert C. Pozen, Brian Conroy (2018), "Credit Rating Agency Reform in the US and EU Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.