Shriners Hospitals for Children Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Shriners Hospitals for Children case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Shriners Hospitals for Children case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Karin Schnarr, Anne Snowdon. The Shriners Hospitals for Children (referred as “Hospitals Care” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Shriners Hospitals for Children Case Study

A large, international benevolent association operating 22 children's hospitals and four research centres in three countries has been negatively impacted by a number of external factors. The effect of the 2008 global financial crisis on its endowment funds coupled with rising health care costs and flat donations, have resulted in the hospitals running at a loss. To ensure the long-term viability of their not-for-profit hospital system, management feels it must present drastic options to delegates at its annual general meeting, including reconsidering the policy of providing free medical care to children regardless of their ability to pay, shutting down research facilities and closing over a quarter of their hospitals. While management is confident that the quality of care for pediatric patients will not be compromised, all of the options being considered will significantly impact hospital operations and the organization's culture. For the first time in the 87 years of the organization's existence, some very difficult options are on the table.

Case Authors : Karin Schnarr, Anne Snowdon

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Shriners Hospitals for Children Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014281)	-10014281	-	-
Year 1	3471665	-6542616	3471665	0.9434	3275156
Year 2	3960934	-2581682	7432599	0.89	3525217
Year 3	3939218	1357536	11371817	0.8396	3307443
Year 4	3247117	4604653	14618934	0.7921	2572021
TOTAL			14618934		12679837

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2665556

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Hospitals Care shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Hospitals Care have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Shriners Hospitals for Children

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Hospitals Care often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Hospitals Care needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014281)	-10014281	-	-
Year 1	3471665	-6542616	3471665	0.8696	3018839
Year 2	3960934	-2581682	7432599	0.7561	2995035
Year 3	3939218	1357536	11371817	0.6575	2590100
Year 4	3247117	4604653	14618934	0.5718	1856550
TOTAL					10460524

The Net NPV after 4 years is 446243

(10460524 - 10014281 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10014281)	-10014281	-	-
Year 1	3471665	-6542616	3471665	0.8333	2893054
Year 2	3960934	-2581682	7432599	0.6944	2750649
Year 3	3939218	1357536	11371817	0.5787	2279640
Year 4	3247117	4604653	14618934	0.4823	1565932
TOTAL					9489275

The Net NPV after 4 years is -525006

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9489275 - 10014281 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Hospitals Care to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Hospitals Care has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Hospitals Care can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Hospitals Care, then the stock price of the Hospitals Care should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Hospitals Care should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Shriners Hospitals for Children

References & Further Readings

Karin Schnarr, Anne Snowdon (2018), "Shriners Hospitals for Children Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.