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Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Stephen Ko, Havovi Joshi. The Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen (referred as “Paper Cheung” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Gender, Leadership, Operations management, Organizational culture, Performance measurement.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment






Case Description of Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen Case Study


Cheung Yan, the chairperson and co-founder of the Nine Dragons Paper Holdings Company ("Nine Dragons") has been globally recognized as one of the foremost strategic business leaders of Asia. Cheung had started off modestly in 1990, by setting up a paper-recycling unit in the US, called America Chung Nam. This unit collected waste paper from the US and shipped it to China. By 1995, Cheung had recognized the huge opportunity for paper manufacturing in China, given its ever-rising demand for export packaging. With the support of her husband and brother, she returned to China and established Nine Dragons, which started off with two paper machines and made 600,000 tons of kraft linerboard per year. By June 2007, the company was a behemoth paper powerhouse, with 13 giant paper-making machines, about 8,600 full-time employees, US$1.4 billion in annual revenue and US$300 million in profits. With a huge expansion program in place, it was expected that by 2009, Nine Dragons would be Asia's top producer of packaging paper, and the first in the world in terms of production capacity. In a male-dominated industry of Asia, how has Cheung succeeded in being celebrated globally as a business leader? What are the qualities and abilities she possesses that have made her such an effective strategic leader?


Case Authors : Stephen Ko, Havovi Joshi

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Gender, Leadership, Operations management, Organizational culture, Performance measurement




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023742) -10023742 - -
Year 1 3461399 -6562343 3461399 0.9434 3265471
Year 2 3958297 -2604046 7419696 0.89 3522870
Year 3 3952274 1348228 11371970 0.8396 3318405
Year 4 3228116 4576344 14600086 0.7921 2556970
TOTAL 14600086 12663717




The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2639975

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Paper Cheung have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Paper Cheung shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.






Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Paper Cheung often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Paper Cheung needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.



Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023742) -10023742 - -
Year 1 3461399 -6562343 3461399 0.8696 3009912
Year 2 3958297 -2604046 7419696 0.7561 2993041
Year 3 3952274 1348228 11371970 0.6575 2598684
Year 4 3228116 4576344 14600086 0.5718 1845686
TOTAL 10447323


The Net NPV after 4 years is 423581

(10447323 - 10023742 )








Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023742) -10023742 - -
Year 1 3461399 -6562343 3461399 0.8333 2884499
Year 2 3958297 -2604046 7419696 0.6944 2748817
Year 3 3952274 1348228 11371970 0.5787 2287196
Year 4 3228116 4576344 14600086 0.4823 1556769
TOTAL 9477281


The Net NPV after 4 years is -546461

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9477281 - 10023742 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Paper Cheung to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.





Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Paper Cheung has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Paper Cheung can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Paper Cheung, then the stock price of the Paper Cheung should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Paper Cheung should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.






Negotiation Strategy of Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen

References & Further Readings

Stephen Ko, Havovi Joshi (2018), "Cheung Yan: China's Paper Queen Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.


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