Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Arthur I Segel, A. Eugene Kohn, Nhat Nguyen. The Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree (referred as “London Canary” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Operations management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree Case Study

Clifford Chance, LLP, a global law firm headquartered in London, needs to make a decision whether to stay in the central business district of London or move to a redeveloped business park at Canary Wharf, 3 miles outside of central London. Peter Charleton, head of the London Office, is proposing to move to Canary Wharf and building a single, landmark headquarters with all the necessary amenities and premium fit-outs that is appropriate for an elite law firm. The tension surrounding the case is the choice to move from the hub of commerce in central London to a relatively obscure site whose owners (Olympia & York) have a history of financial bankruptcy. What business elements (clients, operations, employees, etc.) should they consider if they move the firm and how much relative weight do they place on each element? How do they frame the advantages and disadvantages between central London and Canary Wharf? What type of items should they program into the new facility (cellular or open floor plans, ceiling heights, common space, dining facilities, gymnasiums, etc.)? How should they prioritize these items?

Case Authors : Arthur I Segel, A. Eugene Kohn, Nhat Nguyen

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Leadership, Operations management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026306)	-10026306	-	-
Year 1	3469596	-6556710	3469596	0.9434	3273204
Year 2	3967341	-2589369	7436937	0.89	3530919
Year 3	3962931	1373562	11399868	0.8396	3327353
Year 4	3228249	4601811	14628117	0.7921	2557076
TOTAL			14628117		12688552

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2662246

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of London Canary have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. London Canary shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at London Canary often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at London Canary needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026306)	-10026306	-	-
Year 1	3469596	-6556710	3469596	0.8696	3017040
Year 2	3967341	-2589369	7436937	0.7561	2999880
Year 3	3962931	1373562	11399868	0.6575	2605691
Year 4	3228249	4601811	14628117	0.5718	1845762
TOTAL					10468373

The Net NPV after 4 years is 442067

(10468373 - 10026306 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10026306)	-10026306	-	-
Year 1	3469596	-6556710	3469596	0.8333	2891330
Year 2	3967341	-2589369	7436937	0.6944	2755098
Year 3	3962931	1373562	11399868	0.5787	2293363
Year 4	3228249	4601811	14628117	0.4823	1556833
TOTAL					9496624

The Net NPV after 4 years is -529682

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9496624 - 10026306 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of London Canary to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of London Canary has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at London Canary can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at London Canary, then the stock price of the London Canary should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at London Canary should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree

References & Further Readings

Arthur I Segel, A. Eugene Kohn, Nhat Nguyen (2018), "Clifford Chance: Repotting the Tree Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.