Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Soumendra N. Bagchi, Rajeev Sharma. The Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site (referred as “Permission Project” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Leadership, Project management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site Case Study

In September 2014, an American expatriate project manager at High-Tech Construction Pvt. Ltd. (High-Tech) received a late-night call saying that an engineer at a remote project site in India was extremely ill after consuming alcohol at an employee party. The driver would not take the sick employee to the hospital unless the project manager gave permission, but would giving permission drag High-Tech into a complicated situation? The expatriate manager was unsure of the legal ramifications involved in death or injury due to drinking. In addition, he was concerned about the effect on the company if the media was involved. Because he was an American in a multinational company with Indian employees, the story was potentially more saleable. Furthermore, was it prudent to inform the sick employee's parents yet, or should he call the head of the human resources department for advice? As the project manager, he would have to make the final decision. It had been just a couple months since he arrived in India and less than a month since the start of work on the current project, and now he had a crisis to deal with. Soumendra N. Bagchi is affiliated with XLRI School of Management & Human Resources, C. H. Area (East). Rajeev Sharma is affiliated with XLRI School of Management.

Case Authors : Soumendra N. Bagchi, Rajeev Sharma

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Leadership, Project management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028144)	-10028144	-	-
Year 1	3450096	-6578048	3450096	0.9434	3254808
Year 2	3955645	-2622403	7405741	0.89	3520510
Year 3	3971681	1349278	11377422	0.8396	3334700
Year 4	3249802	4599080	14627224	0.7921	2574148
TOTAL			14627224		12684165

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2656021

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Profitability Index
2. Net Present Value
3. Payback Period
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Permission Project have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Permission Project shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Permission Project often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Permission Project needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028144)	-10028144	-	-
Year 1	3450096	-6578048	3450096	0.8696	3000083
Year 2	3955645	-2622403	7405741	0.7561	2991036
Year 3	3971681	1349278	11377422	0.6575	2611445
Year 4	3249802	4599080	14627224	0.5718	1858085
TOTAL					10460649

The Net NPV after 4 years is 432505

(10460649 - 10028144 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10028144)	-10028144	-	-
Year 1	3450096	-6578048	3450096	0.8333	2875080
Year 2	3955645	-2622403	7405741	0.6944	2746976
Year 3	3971681	1349278	11377422	0.5787	2298427
Year 4	3249802	4599080	14627224	0.4823	1567227
TOTAL					9487709

The Net NPV after 4 years is -540435

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9487709 - 10028144 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Permission Project to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Permission Project has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Permission Project can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Permission Project, then the stock price of the Permission Project should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Permission Project should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site

References & Further Readings

Soumendra N. Bagchi, Rajeev Sharma (2018), "Too Much Alcohol at a Remote Construction Site Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.