Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jury Gualandris, Marco Carsana. The Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? (referred as “Rcl Construction” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Negotiations, Project management, Risk management.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? Case Study

In September 2014, a real estate and procurement expert was preparing his notes for an upcoming strategic meeting with the management team of the Regional Council of Lombardy (RCL), the governing body of one of the 20 regions in Italy. The RCL wanted to analyze the procurement process for two of its most important projects: the construction of Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII, a new cutting-edge, high-technology public hospital; and the construction of the hospital's surrounding parking area. During the construction of the hospital, a number of scope changes had been introduced and a major issue emerged. Construction had concluded at the end of 2012-a??156 million over budget. The surrounding parking area was also subject to some issues, but with relatively minor economic and reputational impacts. Two years after the end of construction, the RCL was performing post-project reviews with the intent of improving future project procurement performance. Jury Gualandris is affiliated with University College Dublin.

Case Authors : Jury Gualandris, Marco Carsana

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Negotiations, Project management, Risk management

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010742)	-10010742	-	-
Year 1	3458739	-6552003	3458739	0.9434	3262961
Year 2	3976567	-2575436	7435306	0.89	3539130
Year 3	3948371	1372935	11383677	0.8396	3315128
Year 4	3247636	4620571	14631313	0.7921	2572432
TOTAL			14631313		12689652

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2678910

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Rcl Construction have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Rcl Construction shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Rcl Construction often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Rcl Construction needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010742)	-10010742	-	-
Year 1	3458739	-6552003	3458739	0.8696	3007599
Year 2	3976567	-2575436	7435306	0.7561	3006856
Year 3	3948371	1372935	11383677	0.6575	2596118
Year 4	3247636	4620571	14631313	0.5718	1856846
TOTAL					10467420

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456678

(10467420 - 10010742 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010742)	-10010742	-	-
Year 1	3458739	-6552003	3458739	0.8333	2882283
Year 2	3976567	-2575436	7435306	0.6944	2761505
Year 3	3948371	1372935	11383677	0.5787	2284937
Year 4	3247636	4620571	14631313	0.4823	1566182
TOTAL					9494907

The Net NPV after 4 years is -515835

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9494907 - 10010742 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Rcl Construction to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Rcl Construction has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Rcl Construction can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Rcl Construction, then the stock price of the Rcl Construction should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Rcl Construction should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership?

References & Further Readings

Jury Gualandris, Marco Carsana (2018), "Ospedale Papa Giovanni XXIII: Fixed-Price or Public-Private Partnership? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.