OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Saju B, Harikrishnan K, Joseph Jeya Anand S. The OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? (referred as “Oyo Vit” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Competition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? Case Study

OYO Rooms had been growing exponentially since its inception in 2013. By January 2016, it had registered 1 million check-ins and was set to become India's largest budget hotel chain. The venture's unique business model helped it to offer effective solutions for the difficulties that were faced by customers seeking budget hotel accommodation in India. OYO Rooms' potential for rapid growth made it a candidate for even greater expansion in the global arena. However, OYO Rooms needed to prove its ability to sustain growth in the Indian budget accommodations market. The company's success and the opening of a huge untapped market had led to a flurry of competition. Would the entrepreneurial founder be able to sustain his company's early momentum in the wake of increased competition? What would be the best strategy to achieve growth and monetize the company's operations? Should OYO Rooms diversify into allied services or apply a more focused strategy? The founder needed to answer these questions to retain the company's dominant position in the market. Saju B. is affiliated with VIT University. Hari Krishnan K is affiliated with VIT University. Joseph Jeya Anand S. is affiliated with VIT University.

Case Authors : Saju B, Harikrishnan K, Joseph Jeya Anand S

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Competition, Entrepreneurship, Growth strategy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010231)	-10010231	-	-
Year 1	3455512	-6554719	3455512	0.9434	3259917
Year 2	3957946	-2596773	7413458	0.89	3522558
Year 3	3937106	1340333	11350564	0.8396	3305670
Year 4	3250062	4590395	14600626	0.7921	2574354
TOTAL			14600626		12662498

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2652267

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Oyo Vit shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Oyo Vit have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making?

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Oyo Vit often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Oyo Vit needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010231)	-10010231	-	-
Year 1	3455512	-6554719	3455512	0.8696	3004793
Year 2	3957946	-2596773	7413458	0.7561	2992776
Year 3	3937106	1340333	11350564	0.6575	2588711
Year 4	3250062	4590395	14600626	0.5718	1858233
TOTAL					10444513

The Net NPV after 4 years is 434282

(10444513 - 10010231 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10010231)	-10010231	-	-
Year 1	3455512	-6554719	3455512	0.8333	2879593
Year 2	3957946	-2596773	7413458	0.6944	2748574
Year 3	3937106	1340333	11350564	0.5787	2278418
Year 4	3250062	4590395	14600626	0.4823	1567352
TOTAL					9473937

The Net NPV after 4 years is -536294

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9473937 - 10010231 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Oyo Vit to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Oyo Vit has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Oyo Vit can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Oyo Vit, then the stock price of the Oyo Vit should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Oyo Vit should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making?

References & Further Readings

Saju B, Harikrishnan K, Joseph Jeya Anand S (2018), "OYO Rooms: Another Unicorn in the Making? Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.