EBS in China Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for EBS in China case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. EBS in China case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Lin Lu, Paul W. Beamish, Bo Jiao, Jiajia Lu. The EBS in China (referred as “Ebs China” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Knowledge management, Manufacturing, Product development.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of EBS in China Case Study

Environmental & Best Safety (EBS) China was the subsidiary of an American mid-sized firm in the safety products and services industry. Between 2000 and 2015, it had employed at different points a variety of strategic approaches to the Chinese market, including local market exploration and learning, autonomous local research and development (R&D), the transfer of local knowledge to centralized R&D, and the return of localization. The global business of EBS had experienced a continuous downturn over the last five quarters. The situation in China was even worse, with sales significantly under the initial target for the Chinese market, which had been the fastest-growing market for EBS over the last 10 years. In 2015, the global EBS president and the head of EBS China needed to make a decision about the next stage in the business strategy of EBS China. The meeting would be critical for EBS China to re-position itself within EBS worldwide.

Case Authors : Lin Lu, Paul W. Beamish, Bo Jiao, Jiajia Lu

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Knowledge management, Manufacturing, Product development

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for EBS in China Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027128)	-10027128	-	-
Year 1	3447044	-6580084	3447044	0.9434	3251928
Year 2	3953607	-2626477	7400651	0.89	3518696
Year 3	3952834	1326357	11353485	0.8396	3318876
Year 4	3248437	4574794	14601922	0.7921	2573066
TOTAL			14601922		12662566

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2635438

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Net Present Value
2. Internal Rate of Return
3. Payback Period
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Ebs China shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Ebs China have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of EBS in China

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Ebs China often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Ebs China needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027128)	-10027128	-	-
Year 1	3447044	-6580084	3447044	0.8696	2997430
Year 2	3953607	-2626477	7400651	0.7561	2989495
Year 3	3952834	1326357	11353485	0.6575	2599053
Year 4	3248437	4574794	14601922	0.5718	1857304
TOTAL					10443281

The Net NPV after 4 years is 416153

(10443281 - 10027128 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10027128)	-10027128	-	-
Year 1	3447044	-6580084	3447044	0.8333	2872537
Year 2	3953607	-2626477	7400651	0.6944	2745560
Year 3	3952834	1326357	11353485	0.5787	2287520
Year 4	3248437	4574794	14601922	0.4823	1566569
TOTAL					9472186

The Net NPV after 4 years is -554942

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9472186 - 10027128 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Ebs China to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Ebs China has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Ebs China can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Ebs China, then the stock price of the Ebs China should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Ebs China should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of EBS in China

References & Further Readings

Lin Lu, Paul W. Beamish, Bo Jiao, Jiajia Lu (2018), "EBS in China Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.