Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Owen Hall, Kenneth Ko. The Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis (referred as “Jilltronics Board” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Manufacturing, Security & privacy.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis Case Study

At a Jilltronics Systems board meeting in 2015, the chief executive officer (CEO) indicated an interest in reviewing the firm's supply chain strategy in light of increasing product and service demand. Jilltronics, a regional player in the U.S. home security market with sales approaching $100 million annually, had experienced significant growth in both the new housing and retrofit markets. The CEO expressed his desire to take a more analytical approach in developing the supply chain strategy that might include expanding the number of vendors. He reported to the board that this initiative could pose some risks due to the challenges associated with managing multiple suppliers. The board meeting concluded with the CEO tasking the chief analytics officer with developing a vendor selection assessment plan and reporting her findings at the next board meeting.

Case Authors : Owen Hall, Kenneth Ko

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Manufacturing, Security & privacy

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009319)	-10009319	-	-
Year 1	3467510	-6541809	3467510	0.9434	3271236
Year 2	3957656	-2584153	7425166	0.89	3522300
Year 3	3964664	1380511	11389830	0.8396	3328808
Year 4	3246793	4627304	14636623	0.7921	2571764
TOTAL			14636623		12694108

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2684789

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Jilltronics Board have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Jilltronics Board shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Jilltronics Board often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Jilltronics Board needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009319)	-10009319	-	-
Year 1	3467510	-6541809	3467510	0.8696	3015226
Year 2	3957656	-2584153	7425166	0.7561	2992557
Year 3	3964664	1380511	11389830	0.6575	2606831
Year 4	3246793	4627304	14636623	0.5718	1856364
TOTAL					10470978

The Net NPV after 4 years is 461659

(10470978 - 10009319 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10009319)	-10009319	-	-
Year 1	3467510	-6541809	3467510	0.8333	2889592
Year 2	3957656	-2584153	7425166	0.6944	2748372
Year 3	3964664	1380511	11389830	0.5787	2294366
Year 4	3246793	4627304	14636623	0.4823	1565776
TOTAL					9498106

The Net NPV after 4 years is -511213

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9498106 - 10009319 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Jilltronics Board to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Jilltronics Board has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Jilltronics Board can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Jilltronics Board, then the stock price of the Jilltronics Board should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Jilltronics Board should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis

References & Further Readings

Owen Hall, Kenneth Ko (2018), "Jilltronics Security Systems: Vendor Selection Using Multi-Factor Analysis Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.