Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Morten Bennedsen, Alexander Guzman, Brian Henry, Maria Andrea Trujillo. The Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed (referred as “Carvajal Family” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed Case Study

Carvajal traces the 110-year history of one of Colombian's oldest family-owned firms from a small print shop to one of the largest paper product conglomerates in Latin America. Founded in 1904 by Manuel Carvajal, a Colombian educator and erstwhile politician, the company has contributed to Colombia's economic and intellectual development ever since. By the 1950s Carvajal was the leading printer and publishing house in Latin America. Although the company benefitted from state protection, a tradition of technical innovation was established - in 1958 it printed the first telephone directory for BogotA? on two-sheet offset press - and thereafter expanded into neighboring countries, diversifying into inter-linked activities. Throughout the 20th century the firm was led by descendants of the founder. In the 21st century, a non-family CEO was hired for the first time.

Case Authors : Morten Bennedsen, Alexander Guzman, Brian Henry, Maria Andrea Trujillo

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021632)	-10021632	-	-
Year 1	3453642	-6567990	3453642	0.9434	3258153
Year 2	3981389	-2586601	7435031	0.89	3543422
Year 3	3958840	1372239	11393871	0.8396	3323918
Year 4	3248910	4621149	14642781	0.7921	2573441
TOTAL			14642781		12698934

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677302

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Net Present Value
4. Payback Period

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Carvajal Family have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Carvajal Family shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Carvajal Family often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Carvajal Family needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021632)	-10021632	-	-
Year 1	3453642	-6567990	3453642	0.8696	3003167
Year 2	3981389	-2586601	7435031	0.7561	3010502
Year 3	3958840	1372239	11393871	0.6575	2603002
Year 4	3248910	4621149	14642781	0.5718	1857575
TOTAL					10474245

The Net NPV after 4 years is 452613

(10474245 - 10021632 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10021632)	-10021632	-	-
Year 1	3453642	-6567990	3453642	0.8333	2878035
Year 2	3981389	-2586601	7435031	0.6944	2764853
Year 3	3958840	1372239	11393871	0.5787	2290995
Year 4	3248910	4621149	14642781	0.4823	1566797
TOTAL					9500681

The Net NPV after 4 years is -520951

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9500681 - 10021632 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Carvajal Family to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Carvajal Family has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Carvajal Family can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Carvajal Family, then the stock price of the Carvajal Family should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Carvajal Family should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed

References & Further Readings

Morten Bennedsen, Alexander Guzman, Brian Henry, Maria Andrea Trujillo (2018), "Carvajal: From Soldiers to Diplomats, from Family-Run to Professionally-Managed Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.