Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Mary Weil, Dina Ribbink, Ramasastry Chandrasekhar. The Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption (referred as “Honda Honda's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Manufacturing.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

---

Case Description of Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption Case Study

Honda Canada was coping with a communications and supply chain crisis after a triple disaster - an earthquake followed by a tsunami and a nuclear meltdown - that hit Japan in March 2011. Honda's worldwide supply chain was characterized by a just-in-time, single-source approach, wherein the supplier for each component provided the best quality at the lowest price. The approach normally ensured economies of scale but now, in an abnormal time, Honda's supply chain was vulnerable. In the short term, Honda Canada had to manage the chaos through effective communication with its stakeholders. In the long term, it had to ensure checks and balances in its supply chain.

Case Authors : Mary Weil, Dina Ribbink, Ramasastry Chandrasekhar

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : Manufacturing

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002178)	-10002178	-	-
Year 1	3453871	-6548307	3453871	0.9434	3258369
Year 2	3964027	-2584280	7417898	0.89	3527970
Year 3	3957444	1373164	11375342	0.8396	3322746
Year 4	3245085	4618249	14620427	0.7921	2570411
TOTAL			14620427		12679496

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2677318

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

---

Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Profitability Index
3. Payback Period
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Honda Honda's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Honda Honda's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

---

Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Honda Honda's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Honda Honda's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002178)	-10002178	-	-
Year 1	3453871	-6548307	3453871	0.8696	3003366
Year 2	3964027	-2584280	7417898	0.7561	2997374
Year 3	3957444	1373164	11375342	0.6575	2602084
Year 4	3245085	4618249	14620427	0.5718	1855388
TOTAL					10458212

The Net NPV after 4 years is 456034

(10458212 - 10002178 )

---

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10002178)	-10002178	-	-
Year 1	3453871	-6548307	3453871	0.8333	2878226
Year 2	3964027	-2584280	7417898	0.6944	2752797
Year 3	3957444	1373164	11375342	0.5787	2290188
Year 4	3245085	4618249	14620427	0.4823	1564952
TOTAL					9486162

The Net NPV after 4 years is -516016

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9486162 - 10002178 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Honda Honda's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Honda Honda's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Honda Honda's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Honda Honda's, then the stock price of the Honda Honda's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Honda Honda's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

---

Negotiation Strategy of Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption

References & Further Readings

Mary Weil, Dina Ribbink, Ramasastry Chandrasekhar (2018), "Honda Canada (B): Tsunami and Sourcing Disruption Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.