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Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Unnikrishnan Dinesh Kumar, P. Arun Pandian, Nachiappan SP. The Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy (referred as “Milk Aavin” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Finance & Accounting. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, Financial analysis, Market research, Supply chain.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy Case Study


The Madurai District Cooperative Milk Producers' Union Ltd. also known as Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy (MAMD) has been one of the largest dairies in the southern part of Tamil Nadu, India. One of the major activities in the MAMD's supply chain was to procure milk from the farmers and also to provide necessary technical input facility to them. The procurement was carried out by forming village-level milk producers' cooperative societies (MPCS). The supply of raw milk to MAMD from the farmers around Madurai is decreasing, whereas the demand is increasing. Several strategies are explored by Aavin to meet the demand for their main product, "premium milk". Aavin faces two challenges: 1. Forecasting the demand for premium milk and 2. Meeting the demand in an optimal manner that would maximize their profit.


Case Authors : Unnikrishnan Dinesh Kumar, P. Arun Pandian, Nachiappan SP

Topic : Finance & Accounting

Related Areas : Financial analysis, Market research, Supply chain




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026099) -10026099 - -
Year 1 3468308 -6557791 3468308 0.9434 3271989
Year 2 3976109 -2581682 7444417 0.89 3538723
Year 3 3949481 1367799 11393898 0.8396 3316060
Year 4 3232505 4600304 14626403 0.7921 2560447
TOTAL 14626403 12687219


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2661120

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Payback Period
2. Net Present Value
3. Profitability Index
4. Internal Rate of Return

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Milk Aavin have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.
2. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Milk Aavin shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Finance & Accounting Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Milk Aavin often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Milk Aavin needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026099) -10026099 - -
Year 1 3468308 -6557791 3468308 0.8696 3015920
Year 2 3976109 -2581682 7444417 0.7561 3006510
Year 3 3949481 1367799 11393898 0.6575 2596848
Year 4 3232505 4600304 14626403 0.5718 1848195
TOTAL 10467473


The Net NPV after 4 years is 441374

(10467473 - 10026099 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10026099) -10026099 - -
Year 1 3468308 -6557791 3468308 0.8333 2890257
Year 2 3976109 -2581682 7444417 0.6944 2761187
Year 3 3949481 1367799 11393898 0.5787 2285579
Year 4 3232505 4600304 14626403 0.4823 1558886
TOTAL 9495908


The Net NPV after 4 years is -530191

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9495908 - 10026099 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Milk Aavin to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Milk Aavin has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Milk Aavin can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Milk Aavin, then the stock price of the Milk Aavin should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Milk Aavin should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Unnikrishnan Dinesh Kumar, P. Arun Pandian, Nachiappan SP (2018), "Supply Chain Optimization at Madurai Aavin Milk Dairy Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.