Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up case study

At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Safal Batra, Sandeep Puri. The Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up (referred as “Baggout Baggout's” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, .

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment

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Case Description of Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up Case Study

The two co-founders of India's online retail aggregator Baggout needed to come up with some ideas that would create new growth for their company. Baggout's e-shopping website had been operational for two and a half years, and during that time, the start-up had enjoyed considerable success in the highly competitive and rapidly growing online retail market. The two partners wanted to establish a strategic growth plan for the upcoming year in 2016, but they knew they would first have to address some important questions if they hoped to identify ways to capture a larger share of the digital marketspace: What technical and digital capabilities would Baggout need for success in the future? What were the possible scalability issues for Baggout? What marketing strategies could the company implement to ensure increased adoption of the Baggout mobile application? Safal Batra is affiliated with Indian Institute of Management Kashipur. Sandeep Puri is affiliated with Institute of Management Technology, Ghaziabad.

Case Authors : Safal Batra, Sandeep Puri

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas :

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up Case Study

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 6 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001547)	-10001547	-	-
Year 1	3454159	-6547388	3454159	0.9434	3258641
Year 2	3965087	-2582301	7419246	0.89	3528913
Year 3	3971648	1389347	11390894	0.8396	3334672
Year 4	3250067	4639414	14640961	0.7921	2574357
TOTAL			14640961		12696584

The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2695037

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting

What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.

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Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting

There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Profitability Index
4. Net Present Value

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Baggout Baggout's shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Baggout Baggout's have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.

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Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Baggout Baggout's often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Baggout Baggout's needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 15 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001547)	-10001547	-	-
Year 1	3454159	-6547388	3454159	0.8696	3003617
Year 2	3965087	-2582301	7419246	0.7561	2998175
Year 3	3971648	1389347	11390894	0.6575	2611423
Year 4	3250067	4639414	14640961	0.5718	1858236
TOTAL					10471451

The Net NPV after 4 years is 469904

(10471451 - 10001547 )

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Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%

If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years	Cash Flow	Net Cash Flow	Cumulative     Cash Flow	Discount Rate @ 20 %	Discounted Cash Flows
Year 0	(10001547)	-10001547	-	-
Year 1	3454159	-6547388	3454159	0.8333	2878466
Year 2	3965087	-2582301	7419246	0.6944	2753533
Year 3	3971648	1389347	11390894	0.5787	2298407
Year 4	3250067	4639414	14640961	0.4823	1567355
TOTAL					9497761

The Net NPV after 4 years is -503786

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9497761 - 10001547 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Baggout Baggout's to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.

Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Baggout Baggout's has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Baggout Baggout's can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Baggout Baggout's, then the stock price of the Baggout Baggout's should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Baggout Baggout's should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.

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Negotiation Strategy of Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up

References & Further Readings

Safal Batra, Sandeep Puri (2018), "Baggout: Growing a Social Curation Start-Up Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.