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RevenueWorks Net Present Value (NPV) / MBA Resources

Introduction to Net Present Value (NPV) - What is Net Present Value (NPV) ? How it impacts financial decisions regarding project management?

NPV solution for RevenueWorks case study


At Oak Spring University, we provide corporate level professional Net Present Value (NPV) case study solution. RevenueWorks case study is a Harvard Business School (HBR) case study written by Jim Ellis, Jessica Morgan. The RevenueWorks (referred as “Revenueworks Sutherland” from here on) case study provides evaluation & decision scenario in field of Leadership & Managing People. It also touches upon business topics such as - Value proposition, IPO, IT.

The net present value (NPV) of an investment proposal is the present value of the proposal’s net cash flows less the proposal’s initial cash outflow. If a project’s NPV is greater than or equal to zero, the project should be accepted.

NPV = Present Value of Future Cash Flows LESS Project’s Initial Investment




Case Description of RevenueWorks Case Study


RevenueWorks tells the story of Mike Sutherland and how he grew the search fund company he acquired from $5 million to over $150 million in revenue. After growing the company with debt and returning dividends to investors through leveraged recapitalizations with private equity investors, Sutherland had to decide the best course to gain liquidity for his existing investors who were eager to see a return on their investment. He had to decide whether to sell the company to a strategic acquirer (at a lower valuation), take on another private equity investor, or IPO the company in the public markets.


Case Authors : Jim Ellis, Jessica Morgan

Topic : Leadership & Managing People

Related Areas : IPO, IT




Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 6% for RevenueWorks Case Study


Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 6 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023371) -10023371 - -
Year 1 3444207 -6579164 3444207 0.9434 3249252
Year 2 3969494 -2609670 7413701 0.89 3532836
Year 3 3974786 1365116 11388487 0.8396 3337307
Year 4 3242865 4607981 14631352 0.7921 2568653
TOTAL 14631352 12688047


The Net Present Value at 6% discount rate is 2664676

In isolation the NPV number doesn't mean much but put in right context then it is one of the best method to evaluate project returns. In this article we will cover -

Different methods of capital budgeting


What is NPV & Formula of NPV,
How it is calculated,
How to use NPV number for project evaluation, and
Scenario Planning given risks and management priorities.




Capital Budgeting Approaches

Methods of Capital Budgeting


There are four types of capital budgeting techniques that are widely used in the corporate world –

1. Internal Rate of Return
2. Payback Period
3. Net Present Value
4. Profitability Index

Apart from the Payback period method which is an additive method, rest of the methods are based on Discounted Cash Flow technique. Even though cash flow can be calculated based on the nature of the project, for the simplicity of the article we are assuming that all the expected cash flows are realized at the end of the year.

Discounted Cash Flow approaches provide a more objective basis for evaluating and selecting investment projects. They take into consideration both –

1. Magnitude of both incoming and outgoing cash flows – Projects can be capital intensive, time intensive, or both. Revenueworks Sutherland shareholders have preference for diversified projects investment rather than prospective high income from a single capital intensive project.
2. Timing of the expected cash flows – stockholders of Revenueworks Sutherland have higher preference for cash returns over 4-5 years rather than 10-15 years given the nature of the volatility in the industry.




Formula and Steps to Calculate Net Present Value (NPV) of RevenueWorks

NPV = Net Cash In Flowt1 / (1+r)t1 + Net Cash In Flowt2 / (1+r)t2 + … Net Cash In Flowtn / (1+r)tn
Less Net Cash Out Flowt0 / (1+r)t0

Where t = time period, in this case year 1, year 2 and so on.
r = discount rate or return that could be earned using other safe proposition such as fixed deposit or treasury bond rate. Net Cash In Flow – What the firm will get each year.
Net Cash Out Flow – What the firm needs to invest initially in the project.

Step 1 – Understand the nature of the project and calculate cash flow for each year.
Step 2 – Discount those cash flow based on the discount rate.
Step 3 – Add all the discounted cash flow.
Step 4 – Selection of the project

Why Leadership & Managing People Managers need to know Financial Tools such as Net Present Value (NPV)?

In our daily workplace we often come across people and colleagues who are just focused on their core competency and targets they have to deliver. For example marketing managers at Revenueworks Sutherland often design programs whose objective is to drive brand awareness and customer reach. But how that 30 point increase in brand awareness or 10 point increase in customer touch points will result into shareholders’ value is not specified.

To overcome such scenarios managers at Revenueworks Sutherland needs to not only know the financial aspect of project management but also needs to have tools to integrate them into part of the project development and monitoring plan.

Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 15%

After working through various assumptions we reached a conclusion that risk is far higher than 6%. In a reasonably stable industry with weak competition - 15% discount rate can be a good benchmark.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 15 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023371) -10023371 - -
Year 1 3444207 -6579164 3444207 0.8696 2994963
Year 2 3969494 -2609670 7413701 0.7561 3001508
Year 3 3974786 1365116 11388487 0.6575 2613486
Year 4 3242865 4607981 14631352 0.5718 1854119
TOTAL 10464075


The Net NPV after 4 years is 440704

(10464075 - 10023371 )






Calculating Net Present Value (NPV) at 20%


If the risk component is high in the industry then we should go for a higher hurdle rate / discount rate of 20%.

Years              Cash Flow     Net Cash Flow     Cumulative    
Cash Flow
Discount Rate
@ 20 %
Discounted
Cash Flows
Year 0 (10023371) -10023371 - -
Year 1 3444207 -6579164 3444207 0.8333 2870173
Year 2 3969494 -2609670 7413701 0.6944 2756593
Year 3 3974786 1365116 11388487 0.5787 2300223
Year 4 3242865 4607981 14631352 0.4823 1563882
TOTAL 9490871


The Net NPV after 4 years is -532500

At 20% discount rate the NPV is negative (9490871 - 10023371 ) so ideally we can't select the project if macro and micro factors don't allow financial managers of Revenueworks Sutherland to discount cash flow at lower discount rates such as 15%.



Acceptance Criteria of a Project based on NPV

Simplest Approach – If the investment project of Revenueworks Sutherland has a NPV value higher than Zero then finance managers at Revenueworks Sutherland can ACCEPT the project, otherwise they can reject the project. This means that project will deliver higher returns over the period of time than any alternate investment strategy.

In theory if the required rate of return or discount rate is chosen correctly by finance managers at Revenueworks Sutherland, then the stock price of the Revenueworks Sutherland should change by same amount of the NPV. In real world we know that share price also reflects various other factors that can be related to both macro and micro environment.

In the same vein – accepting the project with zero NPV should result in stagnant share price. Finance managers use discount rates as a measure of risk components in the project execution process.

Sensitivity Analysis

Project selection is often a far more complex decision than just choosing it based on the NPV number. Finance managers at Revenueworks Sutherland should conduct a sensitivity analysis to better understand not only the inherent risk of the projects but also how those risks can be either factored in or mitigated during the project execution. Sensitivity analysis helps in –

What will be a multi year spillover effect of various taxation regulations.

Understanding of risks involved in the project.

What are the uncertainties surrounding the project Initial Cash Outlay (ICO’s). ICO’s often have several different components such as land, machinery, building, and other equipment.

What can impact the cash flow of the project.

What are the key aspects of the projects that need to be monitored, refined, and retuned for continuous delivery of projected cash flows.

Some of the assumptions while using the Discounted Cash Flow Methods –

Projects are assumed to be Mutually Exclusive – This is seldom the came in modern day giant organizations where projects are often inter-related and rejecting a project solely based on NPV can result in sunk cost from a related project.

Independent projects have independent cash flows – As explained in the marketing project – though the project may look independent but in reality it is not as the brand awareness project can be closely associated with the spending on sales promotions and product specific advertising.




References & Further Readings

Jim Ellis, Jessica Morgan (2018), "RevenueWorks Harvard Business Review Case Study. Published by HBR Publications.